Analyst: Election Polls Underestimating Republican Margins By 5%

Voters/Getty Images
Voters/Getty Images

The polls they are a changin’.

In a generic ballot released this week by USA Today, Republicans are up four points over Democrats, 49-45.

That’s a huge change from USA Today’s previous poll in July when Democrats led Republicans 44-40.

So voters are clearly moving hard — and picking Republican candidates. But the polls are still underestimating the GOP strength, one pollster says.

“I think the ‘polling averages’ are going to end up (on average) underestimating the Republican margins by a net of 5%,” Mason-Dixon Polling Managing Director Brad Coker told The Daily Wire in an email. “I think the GOP will end up with 54 Senate seats. I don’t track House races district-by-district, but I generally think the Republican Party will net a gain of somewhere between 25 and 35 seats.”

“The correct way to interpret poll numbers is not to focus on what they are, but what they say. Over the last two weeks support for Republican candidates has been moving up, while support for Democrats has either dropped or remained frozen in place,” Coker said.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) went even further. “I would say we’ll be between plus three and plus seven … in the Senate; and we’ll be between plus 20 and plus 50 in the House, with the most likely number being plus 44,” Gingrich told The Epoch Times.

“Almost everywhere in the country, races are showing the Republicans tightening up,” Gingrich said, noting that inflation, crime, border security, and “woke policies” are all “coming together” against the Democrats’ favor.

For reference, in the 2014 midterm elections, pre-vote generic polls put Republicans ahead by 2.4 points. But the real tally was nearly double that — Republicans spanked Democrats by 5.7 points, picking up nine U.S. Senate seats and 13 House seats.

In 2010, USA Today and Gallup put out a poll showing Republicans leading Democrats in a generic ballot 49-43. After the vote, the GOP dominated by 6.8 points, picking up six Senate seats and 63 House seats.

But things nowadays are far different from those elections. A recent poll showed that 95% of Americans are concerned about the price of food and consumer goods, as the economy is a top issue for voters in deciding who to support in the midterm elections.

A wide majority of Americans, 73%, say they are “very” concerned about the price of goods and food, while 22% say they are “somewhat” concerned, according to the Pew Research Center poll released Thursday. What’s more, 93% of voters are concerned about the price of energy, and 87% are concerned about the cost of housing, the poll showed.

Midterm Voting Intentions Are Divided, Economic Gloom Persists

The makeup of the House right now is 220 Democrats, 212 Republicans and three vacant seats, so Republicans don’t need many seats to take control of the chamber.

The polls have repeatedly been inaccurate in recent elections, often showing Democrats leading only to be proven wrong. “What we have is polling in aggregated battleground states that has continued in cycle after cycle that is inaccurate,” political analyst Spencer Abraham Jr. told Newsmax over the weekend. “And if it is inaccurate, someone needs to prove it.”

“The oft-cited Quinnipiac Poll, for example, released a much-discussed poll on Oct. 12 on the closely watched Georgia Senate race. It showed Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock leading Republican challenger Herschel Walker by 52% to 45% among likely voters,” Newsmax wrote.

“But looking at the record of Quinnipiac in the three election cycles since 2016, it overweighs Democrats by 2.6 percent,” Abraham said. “So this race is probably a statistical tie now.”

The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.

Joseph Curl has covered politics for 35 years, including 12 years as White House correspondent for a national newspaper. He was also the a.m. editor of the Drudge Report for four years. Send tips to [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @josephcurl.

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The Daily Wire   >  Read   >  Analyst: Election Polls Underestimating Republican Margins By 5%