Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had an excellent week.
The week didn’t begin smoothly. After reports of atrocities in Aleppo perpetrated by Russian-backed Iranian and Syrian forces, the United States condemned Russia strongly at the United Nations, with Ambassador Samantha Power ripping Russia, Iran and Syria, asking, “Have you no shame?” Worldwide pressure seemed to be mounting to curb Russian-supported aggression against Syrian rebels.
And then there was an Islamic terror attack in Berlin and a Turkish Islamist shot to death the Russian ambassador.
Suddenly, Vladimir Putin was back in the catbird seat. Sympathy was on his side. Binary thinking – if ISIS hates Putin, Putin must be fighting ISIS! – came to the fore. Russia suddenly became an ally in the war on terror again.
Here’s the reality: Russia isn’t an ally. Russia has its own interests. And Putin is pursuing them with alacrity.
Putin has reportedly cleared $40 billion as dictator of the country, and his power rests on a petro-oligarchy that seems doomed to collapse. The only way to hang on: playing on Russian nostalgia for International Greatness by acting aggressively in foreign affairs while quashing dissent at home.
So what does Putin want? To maintain his own power. Here’s how he plans to do it.
1. Break Up NATO. Putin has long opposed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which he sees as a way of hemming in Russian ambitions. In November, he announced that Russia could “take countermeasures – that is, to aim our missile systems at those facilities which we think pose a threat to us.” Putin has also stationed missiles in Kaliningrad, a Russian territorial outpost located on the Baltic Sea north of Poland and south of Lithuania. In the past year, Putin has stationed tens of thousands of troops on the borders of NATO states. And after the shooting of the Russian ambassador, one of Putin’s key political allies blamed NATO was behind the murder.
2. Expand Territory. Putin bragged today that Russia can repel any military threat. He also stated that the army’s abilities had “considerably increased” and added, “We need to strengthen the military potential of strategic nuclear forces, especially with missile complexes that can reliably penetrate any existing and prospective missile defense systems.” Putin sees the fall of the Soviet Union as a grave tragedy, and in recent years has expanded territorially into Georgia and Ukraine. It would not be a shock to see Putin challenge NATO by making a move into Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania, or south into Kazakhstan.
3. Enlarge The Sphere Of Influence. Putin knows that many supporters want Russia to challenge the United States for world leadership. That involves creating new spheres of influence. Filling the vacuum left by Barack Obama in the Middle East, Putin has solidified the dictatorship of ally Bashar Assad in Syria, has propped up the mullahs in Iran and helped them pursue nuclear capacity, and now brokers with countries including Jordan and Egypt as the White House runs from a leading role. This allows Putin to organize oil resources to benefit Russia, but it also allows him to counter American interests in the region.
4. Weaken Anti-Trump Forces In The West. Putin’s support for Assad has created some externalities that play to Putin’s benefit, too. The vast wave of Muslim immigrants inundating Europe are creating increased cultural tensions and terrorism, and that’s driving the population into the arms of right-wing parties who pledge to quash immigration – and who are also allied with Putin. The Putin-driven wave of exiles is actually changing politics in the west to Trump’s advantage.
5. Humiliate The United States. Putin wants the United States to be seen as a second-rate tottering giant. That’s why he attempted to intervene in the American election. It’s also why he constantly plays strongman against the United States. In the aftermath of the shooting of the Russian ambassador, the Russian government announced a “freeze” in relations with the United States – and like a scorned lover desperate to deny reality, the Obama administration claimed nothing had changed. Meanwhile, Donald Trump defends Putin from accusations about Russian interference in American politics. All of this makes Putin appear strong.
And Putin must appear strong to remain powerful.
But he isn’t. He’s weak. If the United States had the wherewithal to stand up to Putin, he’d be in serious trouble. The good news for Putin is that no one will. He’s an expansionist in a world of isolationists, a tough guy in an age of weaklings. That’s why the bad guy is winning.