News and Commentary

What Are The Odds Trump Wins Now? Oddsmakers: Slipping.

   DailyWire.com
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media in the briefing room at the White House on July 2, 2020 in Washington, DC. President Trump spoke about the economy and recent jobs numbers as well as the administration's response to the coronavirus. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

It’s been a rough few months for President Trump’s re-election efforts, with the COVID-19 pandemic/panic toppling the “Trump Boom” economy, sending once record-low unemployment numbers skyrocketing at an unprecedented rate, widespread social justice protests spiraling into riots and wreaking havoc in cities, and a steady stream of bruising headlines laying the whole mess at the media-loathed president’s feet.

The brutal few months have taken a toll on Trump’s polling numbers and have oddsmakers giving him less and less of a shot at shocking the world once again. For those wanting to get in on the 2020 election action, oddsmakers say presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is the surest bet — and by an increasingly large margin.

Here’s how Action Network lays out the current 2020 presidential election odds: Joe Biden now has a 59.3% probability of winning (-189 odds), a 3.2% increase from about a week ago. Donald Trump’s chances of winning have diminished to 33% (+175 odds), a 3.2% drop from June 22 and a 12.2% decline from the 45.2% odds he enjoyed about a month ago.

For what it’s worth, the rest of the highly improbable field looks like this: Mike Pence (2.7%/+3,300), Hillary Clinton (1.8%/+5,000), Nikki Haley (1.2%/+7,500), Michelle Obama (0.9%/+10,000), Andrew Cuomo (0.6%/+15,000), Bernie Sanders (0.4%/+20,000), Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (0.1%/+50,000).

“Trump’s implied probability has steadily declined since outrage over George Floyd’s death swept the nation, falling from 45.2% on June 2 to 33% on June 30,” Action Network reports. “Trump hits this new low just days after The New York Times released new polling that showed him falling six to 11 points behind in six battleground states that helped deliver his 2016 victory.”

The Times study, released on June 25, found Trump far behind in the six key battleground states of Arizona (Biden +7), Florida (Biden +6), Michigan (Biden +11), North Carolina (Biden +9), Pennsylvania (Biden +10), and Wisconsin (Biden +11). Real Clear Politics‘ current averages of the state polls are slightly better for Trump in some of the states, but still rather grim: Arizona (Biden +3.5), Florida (Biden +6.4), Michigan (Biden +7.5), North Carolina (Biden +3), Pennsylvania (Biden +7), and Wisconsin (Biden +6.5).

As for the national polls, Biden has also managed to pull away more from Trump in recent weeks. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight currently gives Biden a 9.6% advantage over the president, (51.1 – 41.5). Real Clear Politics‘ average of the national polls puts the gap at 8.8% (49.3 – 40.5). On May 17, RCP showed a far more manageable gap for Trump of 4.9 points (48.6 – 43.7); it’s generally widened since then.

In the fundraising race, Biden has now twice beaten Trump over the last two months, but both candidates managed record financial hauls, and Trump has far more cash on hand. For the month of June, Biden brought in more than $141 million, helped in part by former President Barack Obama. Trump didn’t do so badly himself, closing out the month strongly and ultimately amassing $131 million, his biggest fundraising day of the month his birthday. Biden now has around $80 million in cash on hand, while Trump has a whopping $295 million.

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