On Friday, following the House Judiciary Committee’s vote in favor of the articles of impeachment against President Trump, the president spoke to members of the press at the White House.
During his remarks, President Trump claimed that the impeachment process actually appears to be “very good” for his numbers:
It’s a very sad thing for our country, but it seems to be very good for me politically. And again, those people, because I watched some of the dishonest fake media, they say, “Well, the polls have remained the same.” No, the polls have not remained the same … the polls have gone through the roof for Trump – especially with independent voters, and especially in swing states. I could show you numbers that nobody has ever seen numbers like this before.
NBC News appeared to question the president’s claim, writing: “It was unclear what polls Trump is referring to, but in Monmouth University poll released Wednesday, 45 percent of Americans said Trump should be impeached and removed from office while 50 percent disagreed — little changed since news of the Ukraine controversy broke. In the key swing state of Wisconsin, 40 percent of voters said Trump should be impeached and removed from office, versus 52 percent who disagree, according to a Marquette Law poll released Thursday.”
As The Daily Wire’s Amanda Prestigiacomo reported, citing tweets by journalist and author Ryan Girdusky, a Monmouth poll released on Tuesday found that President Trump “received a seven-point swing in his favor after the impeachment inquiry” when respondents were asked if he should be re-elected in 2020.
The president’s net favorability was also higher than that of his Democratic rivals, except for Pete Buttigieg, according to the Monmouth poll.
The average of ten “job approval” polls taken in the lead-up to Speaker of the House Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announcing a formal impeachment inquiry on September 24 had the president at 44.7% approval. Currently, President Trump’s approval sits at 43.9%, according to RealClearPolitics.
While disapproval numbers in the ten polls prior to the announcement of the inquiry averaged 52.6%, they currently average 53.5%, according to RealClearPolitics, meaning the president’s net approval has moved from -7.9% to -9.6% since the impeachment inquiry began.
Trump v. Biden
The average of eight national polls prior to the announcement of the inquiry had former Vice President Joe Biden 10.8% ahead of Trump. Currently, the RealClearPolitics average has Biden ahead by 9.8% nationally.
Trump v. Warren
The average of eight national polls prior to the announcement of the inquiry had Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) 4.9% ahead of Trump. Currently, the RealClearPolitics average has Warren ahead by 7.2% nationally.
Trump v. Sanders
The average of eight national polls prior to the announcement of the inquiry had Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) 6.4% ahead of Trump. Currently, the RealClearPolitics average has Sanders ahead by 8.4% nationally.
Trump v. Buttigieg
Because there aren’t nearly as many polls featuring Democratic candidate Pete Buttigieg, it’s difficult to draw a comparison between pre-impeachment inquiry and post. However, according to RealClearPolitics, Buttigieg currently has a 4.1% edge over President Trump nationally.
The president mentioned swing state polls going “through the roof” for him. The latest polls from most swing states aren’t fresh. Aside from Wisconsin, the most recent poll from any swing state was released in mid-November. In Wisconsin, Trump trails Biden by 4%, Sanders by 1.4%, and Warren by just 0.4%.
If one considers Arizona a “swing state,” there is a fresh poll from which to pull numbers. According to an OH Predictive Insights survey conducted between December 3 and 4 on 628 “likely voters” in Arizona, President Trump beats every top-tier Democratic rival by a minimum of 2% (Biden, Buttigieg) and maximum of 12% (Sanders).
The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.91 points.
Impeachment and Removal
Of the eight impeachment polls taken following the announcement of the inquiry, four were in favor of impeachment and removal by an average of 6%, three were not in favor by an average of 4%, and one was a tie.
As of publication, the consensus on impeachment and removal is deadlocked at 46.5% to 46.5%, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
However, looking to independents, among the eight polls taken following the announcement of the impeachment inquiry, six were against by an average of 7.2%, and two were a tie. Currently, independents oppose impeachment/removal by 3.8%, according to the RealClearPolitics average.