Voters Back Every Principle Of Self-Defense Until The Country Is Israel

Turn on cable news or scroll through a social feed, and it’s very likely you’ll hear a story about how America is ready to give up on Israel. The protests are loud, the commentary louder, and the conclusion seems to always be that the alliance is losing the public’s support. But Cygnal’s new national survey of midterm voters tells a different story. Two-thirds of voters (67%) support Israel continuing to exist as an independent country while 16% oppose it. And 85% say Israel has the right to defend its civilians against armed attacks.

A year ago, we warned about a generational divide which threatened the longstanding bipartisan support Israel has enjoyed. That divide remains, perhaps even more pronounced. But the new data shows that the divide is disproportionately concentrated among two groups: Democrats and young voters.

Americans believe countries have the right to defend themselves. Ninety-five percent believe a nation may respond militarily when terrorists or a tyrannical neighbor attack it, and 90% believe it may use force to stop an ongoing attack or rescue civilians held captive. About eight in 10 would let it retaliate for a recent attack or even strike first to head off an imminent one. Democrats hold these views nearly as firmly as everyone else. Americans have a baked-in notion of self-defense as old as our founding, and they apply it abroad. Ninety-one percent believe Ukraine is justified in defending itself, and 86% believe the same of Taiwan, with large majorities in both parties.

The consensus extends to America First voters as well. Voters who want foreign policy focused on America over other countries still overwhelmingly support other nations’ right to respond to attacks (96%). These voters don’t discriminate against Israel; they support its right to defend Israeli civilians at 82%.

All of this changes when you get to Democrats’ views on Israel’s existence. Barely half (53%) support it, and a quarter oppose it outright. Yet 78% of them believe Israel has the right to defend itself. Rejecting a country’s existence goes much further than questioning its right to self-defense, yet Democrats find it the easier step. They make up 35% of voters and 55% of those who oppose Israel’s existence.

Republicans do not mirror that image with 89% on Ukraine and 95% on Israel. As we noted in April, Ukraine built a sophisticated information campaign early in the war. Israel has never enjoyed that kind of sympathy on the political Left, nor attempted to clamp down on the obvious disinformation campaigns against it.

Our data shows age is another fault line. Voters 18-29 call Ukraine’s defense justified at a whopping 91% but back Israel’s right at only 67%. That’s a 24-point gap. Only 41% of them even support Israel’s existence. Voters under 45 make up 32% of the electorate and 53% of those who oppose it, far more than their older counterparts. The Daily Wire was among the first to report on what TikTok is doing to those numbers.

The Republicans have a different problem with different reasons. Republicans under age 45 still back Israel’s right to defend itself at 90%. Support for its existence is 70%, compared with 91% among Republicans 45 and older. Where these voters do object to Israel is not because of Israel’s self-defense, but because of perceived Israeli influence over U.S. policy.

In July, we found that Republican men under 45 rate Israel and Saudi Arabia about the same, so the two parties end up in a similar place for very different reasons, a textbook horseshoe effect.

None of this adds up to an America that hates Israel. The principle of self-defense is too closely held and unanimous, and two-thirds of voters stand behind Israel’s right to exist. The hostility is real, and it’s concentrated among Democrats and the young, with a softer pocket emerging among Republicans. Public opinion is always a shaky foundation for building foreign policy. Winning back younger voters means arguing from principle rather than minutiae, and from shared values rather than TikTok trends and talking heads.

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Alex Tarascio is a principal and pollster at Cygnal. Or Yissachar is a national security analyst and host of the Underscore podcast and formerly the executive director of David Institute for Security Policy at IDSF.