As Israel’s war against Hamas terrorists in Gaza approaches its third year following the October 7, 2023, massacre, the conflict has shaken the foundations of public opinion, shifting views not only toward Israel but toward Palestinians as well, according to a recent Cygnal survey.
For decades, Israel enjoyed strong bipartisan support in the United States, but that consensus has eroded, and younger Americans are at the forefront of that shift. Among American voters, Israel’s image is slightly underwater overall, with 41 percent viewing it favorably and nearly 44 percent unfavorably. But among voters aged 18 to 44, Israel’s standing is significantly worse — it is deeply underwater with a net favorability of -31. For voters over 55, it’s the opposite – Israel has a net favorability of +14.
This trend should come as no surprise amid two years of anti-Israel protests, often echoing Hamas messaging, on college campuses and throughout liberal cities. However, declining support for Israel has not translated to a pro-Palestinian shift.
Public opinion on Palestinians is even more negative, with 45 percent of Americans having an unfavorable view compared to just a 31 percent favorable one. But it is here that the generational and partisan divides cut in the opposite direction — 60 percent of voters over the age 55, and 64 percent of Republicans, hold the most unfavorable view of Palestinians.
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Americans are more broadly aligned in their views of Hamas, with three-quarters of likely voters having a negative opinion of the U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization. As is often the case with tracking public opinion, single digits tend to get a mere glance, especially in this case, when only 6 percent view Hamas favorably.
However, that 6 percent translates into roughly 20 million American voters holding a favorable view of Hamas.
That’s enough people to fill 186 Michigan football stadiums (each holding more than 107,000 people), and it not only reflects a dangerous moral confusion, but also a broader cultural shift that favors ideological extremes.
Most Republicans, and some Democrats, support Israel’s effort to destroy Hamas to prevent future massacres and secure the release of the remaining hostages. They are the type of voters who welcome groundbreaking talks between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, as we witnessed this week. But radical voices on the far Left often point to the devastation in Gaza and accuse Israel of genocide. A loud minority on the Right have also begun to believe Israel seeks to draw America into another conflict, or see Israel at the center of every conspiracy, from toppling the Assad regime to assassinating Charlie Kirk.
For American “normies,” all of this is, of course, absurd.
This moment in time is not a passing dip in support for Israel. Another Cygnal survey from just after the horrific attacks by Hamas on innocent civilians on October 7, 2023, revealed 47 percent of American voters were concerned about pro-Palestinian protests in America, but that 38 percent were indifferent, and 15 percent supported them. It’s not unreasonable to assume indifference and tacit support are the same here, meaning that in less than a week after the unprecedented attacks on Israel that sparked the current conflict, more were accepting of the pro-Palestinian protesters’ grievances and open calls for violence against Israel.
These alarming trends were specifically cited by Charlie Kirk, who warned that a war over information was being waged against Israel, especially on social media, and that it had permeated into conservative movements. This latest data affirms the incredibly high-stakes nature of this new era.
But how fitting is the promise of a leader like President Trump to set a new course, not just on the diplomatic stage but on the public one as well. His critical role to support Israel as a bastion of democracy and a strong American ally will only be as effective as Israel’s efforts to rebuild trust and reshape its image among younger Americans in particular.
Maintaining bipartisan, or even just intergenerational Republican support for Israel as a strategic ally is not merely in Israel’s interest – it is in America’s interest. In a democracy, public opinion is not a secondary concern, but the foundational pillar that sustains long-term foreign policy.
Ignoring these dangerous trends is something neither country can afford.
Alex Tarascio is a principal and pollster at Cygnal. Or Yissachar is the executive director of David Institute for Security Policy and member of the Israel Defense and Security Forum.
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