As the US bombing campaign in Iran extends into its fifth week and Tehran maintains its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz and the global economy, what is Trump’s next move? Will Trump escalate by sending in ground forces, or will he look for an off-ramp?
Trump has several military options to try to coerce Iran to open the Strait, but his best move may be to declare victory and go home.
Contrary to most of the mainstream media coverage, the United States has achieved its objectives in the war. Iran will be much weaker after this war than it was one month ago. Intelligence analysts assess threats based on capability and intent. While Tehran’s intent might remain hostile to the United States, its capability is greatly diminished.
The only real remaining, serious challenge is Iran’s continued threats to the Strait of Hormuz and the broader global economy. Ideally, the United States would open the Strait before ending the war, but that is easier said than done. There is no purely military option to force the Strait open. As long as Iran possesses some drones and threatens to fire them, many commercial shippers will assess the risk of transiting the Strait as too high. Even a naval escort cannot guarantee protection against stray Iranian drones and missiles.
In short, reopening the Strait requires Iran’s consent.
There are three possible pathways to change Iran’s mind. The first pathway is regime change. A new government in Tehran may be more pliable. But whether the Iranian people rise up and seize power is ultimately beyond the control of the American military. While this would be a desirable outcome, the Trump administration has been clear that this is not a must-have objective of its military campaign.
The second pathway is through coercion, convincing Iran’s leaders that the United States will escalate the war until they open the Strait. This is where the deployment of U.S. ground forces comes into play. Trump could order the U.S. military to seize Kharg Island, a small island near Iran’s coast through which 90% of Iranian oil exports pass. By controlling Iran’s energy exports, Trump would essentially be threatening that if the rest of the world cannot freely trade energy through the Strait, then neither can Tehran.
Seizing the island would be straightforward, but holding it would be challenging. The island lies near Iran’s coast, well within range of Iranian missiles and drones. U.S. forces on the island would be vulnerable to Iranian attacks in the coming days, weeks, and maybe months. The introduction of ground forces could begin to look like a quagmire. We know from Trump’s “peace through strength” doctrine that he is willing to use military force in short, sharp, decisive ways, but he is wary of long, drawn-out ground operations without a clear end in sight. He will be reluctant to introduce ground forces.
Some have also argued that Trump will send in ground forces to seize stockpiles of Iran’s enriched nuclear fuel, but this is unnecessary. Iran cannot enrich this fuel to weapons-grade without enrichment facilities, and Iran’s major nuclear facilities were indeed “obliterated” last summer. If Iran attempts to rebuild the facilities, Washington can simply bomb them again.
Another military option, as Trump has repeatedly threatened, would be to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure. The purpose of this course of action would also be coercion. To prevent the destruction of its economic lifeline, Tehran may decide to reopen the Strait instead.
But Trump’s repeated threats have yet to yield the desired effect, and actually following through on the threat would be counterproductive. It would reduce Iran’s incentive to open the Strait for others. It would also further reduce the world’s supply of energy, sending prices ever higher, and causing further damage to the global economy.
This leaves the final option, declaring victory and going home. As noted above, the Trump administration has succeeded in greatly weakening Iran and can credibly declare victory at any time.
In this scenario, the strategy for opening the Strait is unclear, but it may ultimately rest on Iran pursuing its own self-interest. If Washington and Israel stop shooting tomorrow, will Tehran keep the Strait closed forever? It will likely threaten the Strait for at least a couple of additional weeks to exact a price and deter future attacks, but what about beyond that?
If Washington and Jerusalem have ceased hostilities for weeks, but Tehran continues to shoot at commercial shipping in the Strait, it will unite most of the rest of the world against it.
Moreover, the biggest challenge facing Iran’s new leaders will be consolidating power at home. Continuing a one-sided war against the global economy would be counterproductive to that objective. At some point, Tehran itself may see that it benefits from a return to business as usual.
In short, there is reason for cautious optimism. The most desirable and plausible scenario at this point may be an end to the war in the coming weeks that sees America victorious, Iran weakened, and the global economy reopened.
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Matthew Kroenig is vice president for Geostrategy and Fellows and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
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