President Donald Trump is cutting down Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead in Arizona, inching closer to the state’s 11 electoral votes.
Though the president is making up ground, it’s unclear if he can keep up the pace of eclipsing Biden votes to overtake the former vice president.
What the very tight race is going to come down to is the estimated remaining 285,000 ballots from Maricopa County and other rural counties.
AZ Central reported Thursday night that Trump needs to pick up his percentage of votes won by 1.4% to pull out a victory:
Trump won 55.6% of the ballots counted in Maricopa County on Thursday to Biden’s 41.7%. It was a great showing, but Trump’s challenge is he needs more than 57% of the outstanding votes to win.
Statewide, Trump chipped away 22,000 votes from Biden’s lead, closing the gap to 46,667 votes as of 9:30 p.m. Thursday. But unless the next batches of votes show Trump with a higher percentage than what the president managed on Thursday, he will fall short.
Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes had a more optimistic take for the president: “Brand new returns in Arizona validate our prior projections about the ‘Desert Storm’ comeback of [President] Trump to win the state,” he wrote. “Don’t believe the skeptics, ignore biased Fox News & AP — stay the course, patriots!”
The video captioned by Cortez was first originally posted on Wednesday and outlines a potential Trump path-to-victory in AZ despite news media, such as Fox News, prematurely calling the state for Biden:
Brand new returns in Arizona validate our prior projections about the “Desert Storm” comeback of Pres Trump to win the state.
Don’t believe the skeptics, ignore biased Fox News & AP — stay the course, patriots!https://t.co/0ZQd1DTmG3pic.twitter.com/wIFUSt4XKW
— Steve Cortes (@CortesSteve) November 6, 2020
Late Thursday afternoon, ABC 15 data analyst Garrett Archer listed the remaining counties and number of ballots still outstanding, as seen below. (Note: Archer later corrected Pima County to 41,000 ballots.)
AZ ballots left. All counties are official estimates. Today's tabulations removed
Apache: 1,5k
Cochise: 5,4k
Coconino: 13k
Gila: 370
Graham: 80
Greenlee: 6
La Paz: 880
Maricopa: 275k
Mohave: 6.5k
Navajo: 4.4k
Pima: 40k
Santa Cruz: 1.3k
Yavapai: 8.4k
Yuma: 8.4kArizona: ~407K
— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 5, 2020
“Arizona tabulated 143,081 ballots today,” Archer posted Thursday night. “Trump won 56.7% to Biden’s 41.2% and gained 22,133 on the former Vice President. There are competing estimates on how many outstanding ballots are, but simply put, he must maintain or improve this level for 2 more days to stand a chance.”
Here are some of the highlights, per Archer:
Pinal county posted 7,985 ballots in the Presidential contest. They broke down as follows:
Biden: 2,504 (31.3)
Trump: 5,423 (67.9)Trump now trails Biden by 65,179 votes.
— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 5, 2020
5,833 ballots from Mohave county have been posted to the state. Here is how they broke out:
Biden: 1,013 (17.3%)
Trump: 4,723 (81%)This is the most conservative county in the state. Trump trails Biden in AZ by 61,469.
— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 6, 2020
Yavapai county has posted 5,169 ballots to the Presidential contest. Breakdown:
Biden: 1,324 (25%)
Trump: 3,651 (70.6%)This is the 2nd most conservative county in Arizona. Trump now trails Biden 58,953
— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 6, 2020
Cochise county has posted 6,136 ballots to the Presidential contest. Breakdown:
Biden: 2,498 (40.7%)
Trump: 3,465 (56.5%)Trump now trails Bide in Arizona by 57,986
— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 6, 2020
Apache county just posted 2,223 ballots. Breakdown:
Biden: 1,805(81.2%)
Trump: 396 (17.8%)This county encompasses the Navajo Nation. Trump now trails Biden 57,844
— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 6, 2020
Gila county posted 2,023 ballots. Breakdown:
Biden: 477(23.6%)
Trump: 1,488(73.6%)Trump now trails Biden 56,833 in the Arizona.
— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 6, 2020
Maricopa county posted 75,314 ballots. Breakdown:
Biden: 31,700 (42%)
Trump: 42,276 (56.1%)Trump now trails Biden 46,257 in Arizona.
— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 6, 2020