Analysis

The Numbers Don’t Lie: Voter Turnout Is The Reason Ossoff And Warnock Won

   DailyWire.com
LITHONIA, GA - OCTOBER 03: Democratic U.S. Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock are seen at a campaign event on October 3, 2020 in Lithonia, Georgia. The two are hoping to unseat incumbent Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.
Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images

After weeks of campaigning in the turbulent and chaotic aftermath of November 3rd, Georgia’s runoff elections are finally over. With only a handful of votes left to be counted, both Republican incumbents have been defeated. Jon Ossoff — a millionaire armchair socialist-lite — beat David Perdue by over 41,000 votes (0.92%), and Raphael Warnock — a radical who has espoused anti-Semitic and anti-American sentiments — beat Kelly Loeffler by over 79,000 votes (1.8%).

While it is possible that recounts will be requested, both margins are larger than the threshold required to automatically trigger a recount under Georgia law.

Many close to President Trump expressed disbelief consistent with the denial demonstrated since November’s election, including White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany, who implied that Warnock’s win was illegitimate. It is likely that some will continue to refuse to accept the reality that Trump, and some who aligned with Trump, lost the election. Setting that debate aside, however, to apply that logic to the Georgia runoff races is simply an act of mathematical denial.

A basic analysis of the vote explains precisely why Loeffler will soon be replaced by a radical socialist embroiled in multiple scandals. In the counties of Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, and DeKalb — the counties which surround Atlanta — Warnock outperformed his November margins. In Fulton, he increased his margin by 2%. In Gwinnett, 4%. In Cobb, 2.4%. In DeKalb, 2.5%. In the top 35 most populous counties that Loeffler won, she underperformed her November margins, in some cases by multiple percentage points.

When one candidate improves and another declines, it doesn’t take a mathematical genius to understand why the improved candidate has a better chance of emerging victorious in an already tight race.

The same is true of the closer race between Ossoff and Perdue. In Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb, Ossoff outperformed his November margins. Indeed, in every county that Ossoff won, he outperformed his November margins, and even flipped two counties (Baldwin and Washington). Perdue, on the other hand, consistently underperformed in multiple counties. Given that Perdue only received 1.8% more than Ossoff in the November election, it’s easy to see how Ossoff achieved his victory.

The brutal fact is that Republicans lost in Georgia solely because Republican voter turnout decreased since November. The driving factors behind this reduction in turnout in historically red counties are numerous, but likely include the campaign against the security and safety of the elections in Georgia. It’s difficult, after all, to convince people to vote while also claiming that their vote is meaningless. While that campaign ultimately drove down voter turnout, the Democrats focused on the opposite.

If Republicans and conservatives hope to avoid making the same mistakes of this election, then it’s crucial that we learn from these mistakes. At its heart, this means understanding that turnout cannot be taken for granted and that any electoral strategy which involves suppressing our own vote will have dire consequences.

Ultimately, the Democrats will now control the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate entirely because of Republicans’ self-inflicted wounds. 

Ian Haworth is host of The Ian Haworth Show and The Truth in 60 Seconds. Follow him on Twitter at @ighaworth.

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.

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