The decade's most triggering comedy
New polling shows a very troubling development for those desperate to see Donald Trump go down in 2020. After struggling in three key battleground states against Democratic presidential frontrunners, Trump has seen a surge in support since Democrats formally moved forward with impeachment. The Republican president now leads every potential Democratic opponent in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three of the Rust Belt states that helped deliver Trump’s electoral victory in 2016.
In a report published Sunday, Firehouse Strategies presented their new quarterly battleground polling results, and they were quite grim for Democrats. In a survey of 1,759 likely 2020 general election voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania conducted last week (12/3 through 12/5), the Firehouse/Optimus pollsters found that Trump was “surging” as an apparent result of the Democrats’ impeachment effort — while Democratic frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden is suffering a “sharp decline in support.”
“As the impeachment process heats up in Washington, Donald Trump is seeing a boost in support in crucial swing states,” Firehouse Strategies reports. “Across the board, President Trump is polling well against the Democratic field in each of these battleground states. Notably, Vice President Biden has seen a sharp decline in support in our surveys as he currently runs behind President Trump in each of the three states.”
And it’s not just Biden who is suffering, it’s all the Democratic candidates. Trump now leads each of them, and often by significant margins.
“As the race currently stands, President Trump is in the lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in hypothetical match-ups against former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Senator Bernie Sanders, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Mayor Michael Bloomberg,” Firehouse explains. “Across the three states, Trump’s closest contest is against Joe Biden, although the president leads by an average of 6 percentage points against each Democrat.”
In Michigan, Trump leads Biden by 5 points (46-41), Warren by 9 points (47-38), Sanders by 6 points (48-42), Buttigieg by 11 points (48-37), and Bloomberg by 11 points (48-37).
The numbers are similar in Pennsylvania, where Trump leads Biden by 5 points (46-41), Warren by 7 points (47-40), Sanders by 10 points (48-38), Buttigieg by 6 points (46-40), and Bloomberg by 4 points (45-41). The 4-point gap with Bloomberg is the closest any of the Democrats get to Trump in the three key states.
The results are even worse for Democrats in Wisconsin, where Trump now enjoys a greater than 8-point advantage over all of the Democratic contenders. Trump beats Biden by 9 points (48-39), Warren by 13 points (50-37), Sanders by 13 points (51-38), Buttigieg by 11 points (49-38), and Bloomberg by 14 points (49-37).
So is the Democrats’ impeachment campaign to blame for Trump’s surge and the Democrats’ — particularly Bidens’ — “sharp decline”? The Firehouse/Optimus survey asked the likely 2020 voters in the three battleground states what they thought about impeachment and got some pretty clear results:
In each of these battleground states, we find that a majority of likely 2020 voters do not support the impeachment and removal of President Trump from office. Impeachment and removal is opposed by 50.8% of voters in Michigan, 52.2% of voters in Pennsylvania, and 57.9% of voters in Wisconsin. Non-partisan voters in Michigan (70%) and Wisconsin (61%) oppose impeachment and removal while non-partisan voters in Pennsylvania slightly support it (46.4% to 40.9%). When asked about whether congressional Democrats should be spending their time impeaching Trump or focusing on policy issues, a majority of these battleground state voters choose “focus on policy issues” (MI: 59.4%; PA: 63%; WI: 67.2%).
Firehouse provides the following “key point” in summary of its findings: “Overall, we find President Trump performing well in these crucial 2020 states. While these numbers will fluctuate as the presidential election continues, Trump is well situated to win back these contests.” (Read the full report here.)