In mid-March 2020, a physicist sent an email to Dr. Anthony Fauci that China was lying about the number of deaths in China due to the coronavirus, writing that he had been “modeling this outbreak since January,” adding, “The data posted by China is not only garbage, it has misled the world into a false sense of security” vis-à-vis “death rate, age vs. death” and “I truly believe the outbreak tsunmai in the USA is either already happened or is about to happen. As you know, as soon as a surge is sensed, the Tsunami will immediately follow. I believe we missed the containment boat quite a while ago.”
Fauci forwarded the email to a member of the NIH, writing, “Too long for me to read.”
Erik A. Nilsen, who has a PhD in applied physics, started the email by acknowledging, “You’re beyond busy but I hope you read this message.” He continued, “I need to clear my conscience because it’s possible (albeit unlikely) that some of what (I) tell you is new and possibly useful in, at least, saving lives in the USA.”
After noting that he was a “physicist and have been modeling this outbreak since January,” Nilsen stated, “My panic started minutes after I learned 5M people left Wuhan around January 22 a few days before the CCP starting locking the country down. The 5M people scattered to 13,000+ cities in China to visit family & friends for the Lunar Festival (Chinese New Year).”
“I’m confident that China stop counting dead COVID-19 infected bodies since ~January 7, 2020,” Nilsen asserted. “They’ve been adding fabricated data daily to show (to save face) the world and their own people an impressive flattening of China outbreak curve. … The number of body bags my contacts told me about about, even after short 15-minutes walk to/from grocery stores in one city during CCP-authorized time slots, suggest the number of deaths is several orders of magnitude larger than what China’s posted data indicates.”
“I’m 99% sure that SARS-CoV-2 been spreading in the USA since late November / earl v December last year,” Nilsen stated. He concluded, “I truly appreciated your efforts, and I’m now confident that President Trump, you, and everyone else involved is doing everything possible to ensure the best possible outcomes.”
Full text of email below:
Hi Dr. Fauci,
I’m now back in my office. I typed the original message on phone. I just noticed a bunch of typos. Below is a better version.
Dear Dr. Fauci,
You’re beyond busy but I hope you read this message.
[Redacted] I’m only mentioning this so you don’t think I’m a paranoid freak. I’m convinced you already know the outbreak is way past the point of containment, and, unfortunately, herd immunity will soon ensue. Then, outbreak 2 will happen shortly after, and, hopefully, not ad infinitum.
I’m writing to make sure you already know or at least suspect everything I’m about to tell you. I need to clear my conscience because it’s possible (albeit unlikely) that some of what tell you is new and possibly useful in, at least, saving lives in the USA.
I’m a physicist and have been modeling this outbreak since January. My panic started minutes after I learned ~5M people left Wuhan around January 22 a few days before the CCP starting locking the country down. The 5M people scattered to 13,000+ cities in China to visit family & friends for the Lunar Festival (Chinese New Year). I ‘ve been communicating with quite a few people around the world including an NYU epidemiologist [redacted]. We’ve both been warning our families, to mostly deaf ears at first, since January. It’s been frustrating and exhausting, but, finally, most are as prepared as possible for what’s about to happen.
I have lots of information about China due to my business, scientific, friendship, and other ties with many there, including immunologists & virologists at top-tier institutions and laboratories. My WeChat account (like Skype / Whatapp) was blocked by the CCP for 3 days late February / early March, but, after a warning message, it is now unblocked. I’m willing to share with you everything I know, think I know, or seriously suspect.
Here are a few examples:
I’m confident that China stop counting dead COVID-19 infected bodies since ~January 7, 2020. They’ve been adding fabricated data daily to show (to save face) the world and their own people an impressive flattening of China outbreak curve. It’s easy to prove this via data analysis because, for example, improbable coincidences occurred in much of the data. My suspicions were eventually confirmed by at least two of my sources in China [redacted]. The data posted by China is not only garbage, it has misled the world into a false sense of security wrt death rate, age vs death, and other things; that is, if people analyzed the world’s data including China, the results are heavily biased towards nonsense, because China’s number of cases accounted for the majority of cases worldwide (until a day or so ago).
I want to emphasize that I do not believe China intentionally did this to harm the world. I sincerely believe it was done for saving face reasons. Saving face is possibly the most powerful motivating force in China. it is the key to understanding how most Chinese think and why they do what they do. China wanted the world to believe that their Herculean quarantining efforts contained the outbreak. However, I don’t think this is true, even after spraying ~billions of gallon of “Clorox” all the country. The number of body bags my contacts told me about about, even after short 15-minutes walk to/from grocery stores in one city during CCP-authorized time slots, suggest the number of deaths is several orders of magnitude larger than what China’s posted data indicates. Also, everyone I know in China continues to be in lock down (~6+ weeks now), and several went “silent” since about a week ago. This greatly troubles me because those who went silent live in Wuhan. And, yesterday, the CCP revoked permits/license for several Foreign reporters who were trying to learn about about the situation in Wuhan and other parts of China. Several of my sources have told me, in coded language, that the situation in at least Wuhan is not under control at all. In my opinion, China is continues to be extremely concerned about saving face (first) and their economy (second). Their economy is already suffering terribly, and they can’t afford to lose the many large manufacturing and other business agreements with foreign countries. This is why I believe they’re trying, and succeeding to convince many, to convince most of their population that the outbreak is under control, and it will soon be ok to return to work — even though it will not be safe, because of current outbreak and outbreak # 2 that will likely start soon. Citizens are not allowed to travel beyond a few stores and, in special cases, their work office, so even people who live their have no idea what’s really going on especially in Hubei province including Wuhan. Also, an H 15N outbreak seems to have recently started in humans in Hunan province (which neighbors Hubei/Wuhan area).
I also have lots of information about USA.
Here is some:
I believe that many COVID-19 deaths were incorrectly labelled at 2019-2020 flu deaths. The spreading in the USA is almost certainly already homogeneous, because it’s been going on since last year without any containment whatsoever. Once massive testing finally starts, this truth/reality will, unfortunately, become obvious. It will manifest itself as hyper exponential (hyperbolic) growth starting a day or two after the millions of testing kits arrive and start being used. The hyper exponential dynamics will eventually evolve to a more accurately calibrated exponential curve once the number to tests is large enough to properly sample the population. I don’t think Italy is ahead of us. I think we’re ahead and by a large amount.
A few other quick bits of info …
The time between infection and death seems to have decreased from about ~20 days (a few months) ago to possibly as short as ~8 days. And, the incubation period seems to be significantly longer. Both, and other data I’ve looked at, strongly suggest at least one mutation has occurred. This is extremely concerning to me. Another concern is the distribution of deaths vs. age appears to not be as strongly biased, compared to when China data was included, towards older people and/or people with chronic health conditions.
Over the past 15+ years, I’ve traveled to China multiple times per year. I’m pretty sure you’ve known this for a while, but I truly believe the outbreak tsunmai in the USA is either already happened or is about to happen. As you know, as soon as a surge is sensed, the Tsunami will immediately follow. I believe we missed the containment boat quite a while ago. I’ve been closely listening to your comments on TV, and I’m pretty sure you’ve already come to the same conclusion but don’t want to cause mass panic (I understand that).
I’m 99% sure that SARS-CoV-2 been spreading in the USA since late November / earl v December last year. [Redacted]. She works at [redacted] and — it’s possible that everyone in her office got infected too. Who knows how many people in Alaska got it too, but I suspect many tens of thousands possible much more. [Redacted] but it has been impossible to get tested. I’ve called 5 places in Alaska and none wanted me to come it for the test.
I’ve instructed my family and, recently (after family), close friends to get some Alvesco ( ciclesonide) for emergency use only. I’ve been told by colleagues on the front-line in Japan, China, and Korea, and found several pre-pr int papers, that it is an effective treatment for late-stage COVID-19 patients. Some patients on ventilators who were approaching death have fully recovered after treatment with ciclesonide; ciclesonide has much smaller particles than other corticosteroids so it reaches deeper into lungs and alveolis) . Also, the treatment seems to be a potent suppressor of virus replication. Recovered patients have tested negative shortly after the treatment. Of course, data is limited so can’t be sure the treatment is effective. However, because Alvesco has been shown to be safe for infant – 100+ year-old patients, I’m ok with my family and I having it for emergency use. That is, only if healthcare facilities are unable to accept them or me as a patient to treat with ventilator, corticosteroids ( or whatever the best available treatment is at that time). Having Alvesco in our emergency kits is a much better option that someone avoidably dying because of an overburdened healthcare facility. The other drug I have, and have told my family and some friends to get, is called hyro xychloriquine — also seem to be effective and safe. But , I think Alvesco is better because it appears to prevent the virus from replicated so infection is wiped out and no longer contagious. Alvesco seems to be two silver bullets in one.
I don’t believe in coincidences and I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but there are many things out of Iran that also concern me greatly . That’s all I say right now.
If all of this is old news to you, then I would greatly appreciate a response. It can be as short as “yes”. Anyway, I had to share this information with you. Now my conscience is clear. My concern is that it’s possible you don’t have some of the above info, so I decided to send you this message.
I wrote this quickly, so I apologize in advance for any typos, etc .
I truly appreciated your efforts, and I’m now confident that President Trump, you, and everyone else involved is doing everything possible to ensure the best possible outcomes. I was deeply concerned a few weeks ago, when the gravity of the situation seemed to not be fully recognized by several in DC.
Feel free to call me anytime. My cell # is below. If you do call, I will keep anything we discuss confidential (if necessary) .
This article has been revised to note Fauci emailed his response to a member of the NIH.