The latest polls in California give 2020 presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) a commanding lead over his Democratic rivals.
About two weeks ago, a Monmouth University poll gave Sanders a seven-point lead over his nearest opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden. But in the past week, a pair of polls have shown Sanders has pulled away from his competition and is on track to run away with a good chunk of California’s 416 delegates on Super Tuesday.
A KQED/NPR poll conducted February 20-23 of 1,069 likely voters found 37% supported Sanders. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) came in second in that poll with 20% of the vote, giving Sanders a 17-point lead over his opponents. The latest poll, from the University of California-Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, gave Sanders 34% of the vote and Warren 17%, meaning the Vermont socialist has a 2-to-1 lead in the Golden State heading into Super Tuesday.
Four years ago, Sanders lost the California primary to Hillary Clinton, who received 53% of the primary vote. Clinton walked away with 254 of the state’s delegates, while Sanders took 221. If the current 2020 poll numbers hold, Sanders would gain about 141 delegates while the rest would be split between about five other candidates.
The other big news from the Berkeley poll should concern Biden’s campaign. While Biden appears to be on track to win the South Carolina and Florida primaries, he comes in fifth place in the latest Berkeley poll. The Real Clear Politics polling average of California still puts Biden in third place, but the latest poll represents a major drop in placement for the former vice president. South Carolina (54 delegates) and Florida (219 delegates) could help Biden replace what Sanders gains in California, but Biden won’t be getting all the delegates even if he win both states, he’ll get a percentage.
Biden, considered the front runner of the 2020 Democratic primary until people actually started voting, currently sits in third place with 15 delegates won from the three contests so far in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Sanders has 45 delegates while South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has 25. Rounding out the top five candidates are Warren with eight delegates and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) with seven.
The Mercury News reported that the Berkeley poll also represents a major drop in support for Warren, who in September led the Democratic field among likely primary voters.
“Sanders’ support relies on three basic groups, according to the poll: Californians who consider themselves “very liberal,” of which he gets about 50 percent support; Latino voters, who make up about a quarter of the likely electorate and support him in a similar margin, and younger voters. The Vermont senator takes 61 percent of voters between 18 and 29, and 53 percent of those in their 30s,” the News reported.
“California’s primary will give out 415 delegates, but only to candidates scraping at least 15% of the vote either statewide or in a congressional district,” the outlet continued. “Sanders and Warren are the only candidates now reaching that milestone, the latest Berkeley poll found, meaning that they would split the 144 delegates if that trend continues. Sanders would receive about two-thirds.”