The first rule of politics is this: Never run directly into a tree while kicking yourself repeatedly in the groin.
Republicans in Congress seem to have forgotten this rule.
Two weeks ago, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), along with limelight-seeking compatriots like Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), decided it was time to get rid of Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. Sure, McCarthy had only been speaker for approximately five minutes. And sure, in that time, McCarthy had defeated Joe Biden in a standoff over a continuing resolution and was preparing to pry concessions out of Senate Democrats that amounted to a cut in discretionary spending plus border funding.
But it was time for McCarthy to go.
Why?
Because of “The Establishment,” that’s why.
What, you may ask, is “The Establishment”?
Well, apparently, defining The Establishment is a little like asking someone to capture the wind in a bottle or to trap starlight with one’s hands.
Sometimes, The Establishment means Republicans who are in favor of fiscal responsibility, like that “Establishment Toady Paul Ryan.”
Sometimes, The Establishment means Republicans who want to expand the size and scope of government, like that “Establishment RINO George W. Bush.”
Sometimes, The Establishment means Republicans who are socially conservative, like that “Establishment Stooge Mike Pence.”
Sometimes, The Establishment means Republicans who are socially liberal, like that “Establishment Pawn Susan Collins.”
Sometimes, The Establishment means people who are hawkish on foreign policy, like that “Establishment Dunce Lindsey Graham.”
Sometimes, The Establishment means people who are dovish on foreign policy, like that “Establishment Doofus Jon Huntsman.”
Now, the term “Establishment” used to have a meaning. It used to mean a person with power who was too conciliatory to Left-wing positions.
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But during Donald Trump’s presidency — when he was actually president — we learned power had nothing to do with it. Trump, the most powerful person on the planet, wasn’t The Establishment.
During Trump’s presidency, we also learned friendliness to Left-wing positions didn’t make one “Establishment” either — after all, it was Trump who declared entitlement programs, the biggest drivers of America’s debt, were off the table for discussion.
So, what makes someone The Establishment?
Insufficient posturing.
That’s it. That’s the whole thing.
Posturing.
See, the only way to avoid being labeled “Establishment” these days is to get nothing done, but to yell really, really loudly, particularly about The Establishment. To be anti-Establishment is to complain about losing elections while doing nothing to win them. It’s to shout, “The game is rigged!” — while refusing to even engage in the game at all.
Being anti-Establishment is apparently about whining.
It’s about showing what you’re against by posturing, and then telling your audience if you posture theatrically enough, your opposition will surrender. Passing legislation is a no-no. Recognizing reality? Nope. Doing any of that is surrendering to the opposition. You can vote with Democrats to take down a Republican Speaker of the House with no backup plan, and you’ll be considered anti-Establishment, all because you yell about The Establishment.
Now, that’s all fun and games in the commentariat. After all, in my industry, it’s easy to remain ideologically pure. The beauty of what people like me do for a living is that we can speak on what we wish would happen, what the best of all possible worlds would be; we can point out where our politicians are falling short of our principles. We can keep the pressure on the politicians. That’s our job.
But when it comes to Congress, purism is a recipe for stagnation and disaster. That’s because, believe it or not, budgets do need to be passed. Legislation does need to be crafted. If you don’t do those things, Americans put you in minority status in the halls of power.
Permanently.
Because Republicans have to deal with a very slim majority in the House, a Democratic Senate, and a Democratic President, any Speaker of the House will have to fall short of perfectly performative opposition. Being Speaker of a fractious caucus faced with a minority position in the upper chamber and White House necessarily means cutting deals, not just posturing. That was true of McCarthy. It would have been true of Steve Scalise (R-LA). It would have been true of Jim Jordan (R-OH) too. If Matt Gaetz suddenly became Speaker, it would be true for him too.
Our Congress, though, has now been filled with people responding to the incentive structure created for the commentariat. You get attention and money for posturing, not legislating. You yell about The Establishment — i.e., anyone who does anything in Congress — and you win points.
And so, according to Matt Gaetz, Kevin McCarthy was The Establishment. And that meant he had to be defenestrated in favor of, well, someone. Or no one. Or maybe someone who is a no one.
We don’t quite know yet.
What we do know is that the Speaker won’t be Kevin McCarthy, he of the 78% Heritage Action Score. And it won’t be Steve Scalise, he of the 82% Heritage Action Score, or Jim Jordan, who has the same Heritage Action Score. Maybe it will be Tom Emmer (R-MN), he of the 82% Heritage Action score, but probably not. And it probably won’t be Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), he of the 82% Heritage Action Score.
Actually, it’ll probably be no one for a good while longer. Meanwhile, Biden will work to ram through a $105 billion defense package that includes $60 billion for Ukraine and $10 billion for Gaza — all it will take is peeling off a few Republicans to vote with the Democrats. Again.
Now, you know who could have helped to stop that? Who could have proposed single issue spending bills on foreign policy? A Speaker of the House. But at least The Establishment was stopped. That’s the important thing.
And there’s good news: If Republicans keep losing the way they did in 2018, 2020, and 2022, they won’t have to worry about being The Establishment — because they won’t have power at all.
Note that none of this has anything to do with principle. It has nothing to do with conservatism or victory. It has to do, instead, with applause and cash and fame.
But for many people in the Republican Party, that’s apparently good enough.
It shouldn’t be.
Republicans can still win. They can still push the ball forward for conservatism. But to do that, they’ll need to actually think about how to win, not merely how to posture. They’ll need to stop running directly into trees. If they don’t, all they’ll end up with is a minority position in Congress, a Democrat in the White House, and a terrible ache in the groin.