As the 2022 midterms approach, Republicans hold a double-digit lead in the Congressional generic ballot, according to a new poll.
The poll of 1,073 likely midterm voters, conducted by the Trafalgar Group and Convention of States action, found that respondents favored Republicans in the generic ballot by nearly 13 points; 54.4% of respondents favored a Republican candidate in the midterm elections, while just 41.9% favored a Democratic candidate.
The poll also asked respondents if they thought Republicans would “follow through on their promises to block or undo President Joe Biden’s agenda” if they took control of the House and Senate after the midterms. The plurality of voters, 46.1% were “very confident” Republicans would follow through on their promises, 35% were “somewhat confident,” 10.7% were “not very confident,” and 8.2% were “not confident at all.” Notably, a majority of voters who backed Democrats said they were “very confident” Republicans would follow through, while 39.1% of Republican backers were “very confident.” Another 43.6% of Republican supporters and 24.7% of Democrat supporters were “somewhat confident.”
Trafalgar also polled respondents on several key issues. On the border, respondents were asked, “Do you believe the southern border should be secured and illegal border crossers returned to their country of origin?” A massive majority of voters, 67.3%, responded “yes,” while just 18.2% said “no,” and 14.6% were undecided. Those who supported Republican candidates were significantly more likely to agree that the border should be secured. Fully 94% of voters who backed Republican candidates said yes, while just 1.8% said no, and 4.2% were unsure. Conversely, just 32.6% of Democrat supporters said the border should be secured, while 37.9% said no, and 29.6% were unsure. Respondents were also asked about whether they believed that Fentanyl from China being trafficked across the border was the leading contributor to overdose deaths in the U.S. A majority, 56.3%, said yes, including 80.6% of Republican supporters and 26.6% of Democrat supporters.
On China, the poll asked, “Do you believe growing aggression from China is a threat to America?” Voters responded “yes” by another overwhelming majority, 69.7%, compared to just 14.3% who said no, and 16.1% who were unsure. Fully 92% of Republican supporters said yes, as well as a plurality of Democrat supporters, 41.8%. Just 4.4% of Republican supporters said no, while 25.6% of Democrat supporters said no.
Voters were then asked about domestic energy production. “Do you believe America can further develop domestic natural gas and oil production without putting the environment at risk?” the poll asked. Another large majority agreed: 62.8% of voters said yes, including 86.9% of voters who backed Republicans and 34.9% of those who backed Democrats. A majority of Democrat supporters, 51.9%, said “no,” but just 6.1% of Republican supporters and just 27.6% of overall voters said no.
On inflation, voters were asked, “Do you believe Biden’s policies to fix inflation will help or hurt America’s economic recovery?” 54.2% of respondents said Biden’s policies would hurt, while 31.7% said they would help, and 14.1 were unsure. Republican supporters overwhelmingly believed Biden’s policies would hurt, 94.2% to just 1.6% who said they would help. A strong majority of Democrats, 72.1%, said Biden’s policies would help, and, notably, while just 2.1% said they would hurt, a sizable share of Democrat supporters, 25.8% were unsure.
Education proved to be a more contentious issue. “Do you think parents should have greater authority than teachers’ unions in directing the education policy in their local school districts?” the poll asked. A plurality of voters 48%, said yes, including 77.8% of those who backed Republicans and 12.3% of those who backed Democrats. But 40.9% of voters said no, including 72.8% of Democrat supporters and 15% of Republican supporters.
The new poll comes as President Joe Biden’s approval ratings continue to slide, and as multiple pundits and Democrat politicians have sounded the alarm that Democrats are in a poor position as the midterms approach. As of Tuesday, 30 incumbent Democrats in the House of Representatives have retired from Congress before the midterms.
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