In the latest weekly White House Watch survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports, President Trump, who trailed former Vice President Joe Biden by 10 points in last week’s survey, has narrowed the deficit to just three points.
Rasmussen reported, “The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds the likely Democratic presidential nominee earning 47% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate. Four percent (4%) are undecided.”
In the latest White House Watch survey, Trump garnered 79% of the Republican vote; Biden got 76% of Democrats. Among Independent voters, Biden scored 44% of the vote, Trump 38%; last week Biden’s lead among Independents was 12 points.
RealClearPolitics showed figures after the smoke had cleared from the 2016 presidential election that Rasmussen Reports was the second most accurate poll out of 11 major polls RCP selected regarding the presidential final results, only one of which (IBD/TIPP Tracking) predicted a Trump victory. Rasmussen predicted an extremely narrow victory for Hillary Clinton, prognosticating that she would win the popular vote by 1.7%; she won by 2%.
While Rasmussen has a sanguine view about Trump’s current position, Quinnipiac has precisely the opposite perspective. On Wednesday, Quinnipiac reported that Biden had soared to a 15-point lead over Trump, 52%-37%, virtually double the lead Biden had in a Quinnipiac poll last month, when he held an eight-point advantage. Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy stated, “[T]here’s still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real time look at what the future could be for President Trump. There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president.”
Fox News noted, “An average of the latest national polls in the 2020 presidential race compiled by RealClearPolitics indicates Biden with an 8.1 point lead over Trump. More importantly, Biden enjoys single digit advantages over the president in an average of the most recent polls in many of the key battleground states where the general election will be won.”
1988 Democratic presidential candidate Michael Dukakis, who at one point had a mammoth 17-point advantage over George H. W. Bush according to a Newsweek/Gallup poll, told the Boston Globe earlier this month that Biden should not grow overconfident if polls suggest he has a huge lead, He stated, “Particularly this year, [polls] should be studied cautiously. Biden can and should win, but being at 50, no matter how weak your opponent is, is no guarantee of success.” Newsweek/Gallup was not the only poll showing Dukakis with a huge advantage; three other polls that also stated Dukakis was leading Bush by double-digit numbers.
In August 2016, The Wrap warned, “But anyone thinking Hillary Clinton will cruise to a crushing win might want to look back eight more years, to 1988. About this time 28 years ago, Massachusetts Gov. Mike Dukakis had what appeared to be an insurmountable lead over then-Vice President George H. W. Bush.”
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