Punxsutawney Phil Makes Groundhog Day Prediction. But How Often Does He Actually Get It Right?

PUNXSUTAWNEY, PA - FEBRUARY 2: Official groundhog handler Bill Deeley holds Punxsutawney Phil on February 2, 2006 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Every February 2, people gather at Gobbler's Knob, a wooded knoll just outside of Punxsutawney to watch Punxsutawney Phil look for his shadow. If he sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. If he does not see his shadow, it means spring is just around the corner. The legend of Groundhog Day is based on an old Scottish couplet: "If Candlemas Day is bright and clear, there'll be two winters in the year." (Photo by J
Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

Punxsutawney Phil once again made his Groundhog Day prediction on Friday and, after not seeing his shadow, declared that we are in for an early spring.

The Groundhog — who’s famously been making predictions since 1887 about how long winter will last — emerged from his burrow in Pennsylvania, and in front of the crowd of fans, predicted things are about to warm up.

Glad tidings on this Groundhog Day. An early spring is on the way,” a proclamation was read out at Gobbler’s Knob, thrilling the crowd.

However, we took a look at just how often the furry prognosticator gets it right against the U.S. National Temperature and we were surprised to learn that it’s not too many times.

In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration went back and looked at the times Phil saw his shadow predicting 6 more weeks of winter and the times he didn’t and he’s only been right a handful of times.

A chart posted on X from the NOAA Satellites noted that since 1887, the Groundhog has predicted more winter 107 times. In contrast, he’s claimed that an early spring is headed our way only 21 (counting 2024) times, and 10 other times it wasn’t recorded whether he saw his shadow or not.

Taking a deeper look into the stats, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club has kept records of the furry rodent’s predictions over the last century and they found Phil has about a 40% accuracy rate, the New York Post noted.

In recent years, it appears Phil has been about half-way right. In 2021, Phil saw his shadow, predicting more winter. But according to NOAA, February 2021 was the coldest since 1989 and March turned out to be warmer than normal.


And then again in 2022, the furry prognosticator saw his shadow, but according to NOAA, February temperatures were slightly below normal, but March was above average.

This time, though, Phil might have nailed it as the National Weather Service is predicting the months of February and March 2024 will bring “above-normal temperatures” for the central part of the country.

Farmer’s Almanac has predicted that temperatures will be “warmer than normal in the deep Deep South, southern Plains, and Pacific Northwest,” but colder than normal elsewhere. It also claimed that U.S. precipitation “will be near to above normal” for the majority of the country.

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The Daily Wire   >  Read   >  Punxsutawney Phil Makes Groundhog Day Prediction. But How Often Does He Actually Get It Right?