Pollster: Max Miller Is In Trouble With A Capital ‘T’

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned on Thursday that Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) was likely to cost his party a seat in the upcoming midterm elections.

Enten laid out the polling in Miller’s race showing his standing has fallen sharply since accusations of domestic violence surfaced and Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), Miller’s former father-in-law, called on him to resign.

“Max Miller is going to cost his party — most likely cost his party a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives when we’re talking about the politics of this,” Enten said, “You can see quite well on the Kalshi prediction market chance to win Ohio [District] 7, look at this, Poindexter, the Democrat, 37% on July 25th, over the last few weeks his chances way up to 70%.”

In contrast, he added, “Max Miller’s chances, look at this, falling down through the floor, falling into Lake Erie, going from 64% now down to 30%. What seemed like a race that was favoring Miller is now favoring the Democrat Poindexter as this scandal has hit the press.”

CNN host John Berman jumped in to point out the fact that the new poll numbers had only come ten days after the first — and that was how quickly the race had turned on Miller.

“Is there a way to measure the impact that scandals have on House races?” Berman asked.

Enten laid out more historical data, noting that, on average, 85% of House members succeeded in reelection bids — but for those mired in scandals at the time of the election, the success rate dropped to 57%.

“Scandals matter. Scandals matter. I know a lot of people think nothing matters, but scandals still do matter in our politics,” Enten added.

He went on to say that another important factor was how much interest there was in a particular scandal — and the numbers were not working in Miller’s favor on that point either. According to Google Trends, searches in Miller’s district for information about him and the still-unfolding scandal were up 3200% over the previous two weeks.

Miller has repeatedly claimed that there is nothing to the accusations against him — but his attempts to interview his way out of public scrutiny have thus far been unsuccessful.