Polls show former President Donald Trump with a commanding lead among independent voters over Vice President Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic presidential nominee.
According to the <a href="https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/ap-dnc-delegate-survey/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Associated Press</a>, Harris has secured the backing of more than the 1,976 delegates required to win the nomination.
A HarrisX poll <a href="https://www.harrisx.com/content/hop-july-19-21-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">conducted</a> July 19-21 before Biden dropped out found Trump <a href="https://www.harrisx.com/posts/harrisx-forbes-poll-trump-gains-momentum-post-republican-convention-doubles-lead-against-biden-and-harris">leading</a> Harris by eleven points, 51-40% among likely November voters. In a shocking piece of data for Democrats, Trump and Harris were tied at 45% among Hispanic voters. The split among Hispanic voters broke down between men and women; male Hispanic voters favored Trump 58-36%, while female Hispanic voters favored Harris 52-34%. Suburban voters favored Trump by eleven points, 51-40%.
A Quinnipiac poll conducted July 19-21 found that among independent voters, Trump led Harris by a 14-point margin, 46-32%.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
🇺🇲 2024 GE: <a href="https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@QuinnipiacPoll</a>
🟥 Trump: 45% 🟦 Harris: 41% 🟨 RFK Jr: 6% 🟪 Other: 4%
Independents 🟥 Trump: 46% 🟦 Harris: 32% 🟨 RFK Jr: 11% 🟪 Other: 7%
#19 (2.8/3.0) | July 19-21 | 1,257 RV <a href="https://t.co/dR9PzUOOIl">https://t.co/dR9PzUOOIl</a> <a href="https://t.co/Q1gIXgXOp2">https://t.co/Q1gIXgXOp2</a> <a href="https://t.co/OhJjihTzg3">pic.twitter.com/OhJjihTzg3</a>
&mdash; InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) <a href="https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1815502426952151391?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 22, 2024</a></blockquote>
A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 17-20 showed Michigan voters favoring Trump over Harris by five points, 46-41% if two additional candidates were included: independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
In North Carolina, Trump led Harris by four points, 48-44%, if two additional candidates were included; in Arizona, Trump led Harris 46-40%; in Pennsylvania, Trump led Harris 46-44% with four candidates.
Additionally, Harris elicited far more unfavorable numbers than Trump; in Arizona, Trump was two points under while Harris was a massive 17 points under (Favorable/Unfavorable); in Pennsylvania, Trump was four points under while Harris was a whopping 16 points; in North Carolina, Trump was four points under while Harris was 10 points under; in Michigan, Trump was eight points under while Harris was 12 points under.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
Do you have a Favorable or Unfavorable opinion of&#8230;?
Arizona Trump: 47-49 (-2) Harris: 38-55 (-17) — Pennsylvania Trump: 46-50 (-4) Harris: 38-54 (-16) — Michigan Trump: 44-52 (-8) Harris: 40-52 (-12) — North Carolina Trump: 47-51 (-4) Harris: 41-51 (-10) —<a href="https://twitter.com/ppppolls?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ppppolls</a> for a… <a href="https://t.co/lUjsSH7n4Q">https://t.co/lUjsSH7n4Q</a> <a href="https://t.co/BFYgGZhOIb">pic.twitter.com/BFYgGZhOIb</a>
&mdash; InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) <a href="https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1815584193088258121?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2024</a></blockquote>
On Monday, Polymarket, which bills itself as “the world’s largest prediction market,” <a href="https://polymarket.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">showed</a> the odds of Trump winning the presidential election at 64-33%. It also showed the odds of Trump winning the swing states by significant margins; in Pennsylvania, Trump led 57-43%; in Wisconsin, Trump led 55-45%; in Michigan, Trump led 53-47%; and in Arizona, Trump led 66-34%.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
.<a href="https://twitter.com/Polymarket?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Polymarket</a> &#8211; Swing States Odds (7/22)
PENNSYLVANIA 🟥 Donald Trump: 57% 🟦 Kamala Harris: 43% — WISCONSIN 🟥 Donald Trump: 55% 🟦 Kamala Harris: 45% — MICHIGAN 🟥 Donald Trump: 53% 🟦 Kamala Harris: 47% — ARIZONA 🟥 Donald Trump: 66% 🟦 Kamala Harris: 34% — GEORGIA 🟥… <a href="https://t.co/qaTda3xxyr">pic.twitter.com/qaTda3xxyr</a>
&mdash; InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) <a href="https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1815575858993680634?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2024</a></blockquote>
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Polls Show Trump With Commanding Lead Over Harris Among Independents

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Polls Show Trump With Commanding Lead Over Harris Among Independents