On Thursday, The Hill released an article regarding their latest Hill-HarrisX poll, titled: “Trump approval rating dips among women.” The title of the piece isn’t untrue, but without context, one might attribute to this poll more weight than they otherwise would, perhaps imagining a trend that isn’t actually there.
The survey asks: “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President of the United States?” The president’s overall approval rating stands at 46%, according to the poll, but when broken down by sex, the numbers move in opposite directions.
Among men, support for President Trump stands at 51%, while among women, support stands at 42%.
The poll was conducted between August 18-20 on 2,002 registered voters. According to a nearly identical poll taken by Hill-HarrisX between July 20-21, the president’s approval rating among women was 45%. Looking at those two polls alone, one might come to the conclusion that President Trump is losing female support. What aren’t mentioned are the long-term trends, as well as Trump’s overall approval and approval among men.
Looking at Hill-HarrisX presidential approval polls going back to January 2019, President Trump’s approval rating among women and men has fluctuated:
January: Men (51%), Women (38%)
February: Men (45%), Women (41%)
March: Men (48%), Women (43%)
April: Men (50%), Women (41%)
May: Men (51%), Women (38%)
June: Men (48%), Women (42%)
July: Men (47%), Women (45%)
August: Men (51%), Women (42%)
While the high for the first eight months of 2019 indeed came in July at 45%, August’s 42% is by no means a serious low that would certainly indicate the beginning of a long-term downward trend.
As of publication, President Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 43.3%, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) rolling average. Aside from the first few days following his swearing in, President Trump has remained underwater in average approval rating. Since mid-April 2018, however, his approval rating has remained relatively steady, despite two major dips.
For comparison, during his third year as president, Barack Obama averaged 46.5% approval to 47.9% disapproval, for a net approval rating of -1.4% compared to President Trump’s current net approval of -10.1%, according to RCP.
If “job approval” numbers are a reliable indicator of the president’s re-election prospects, things aren’t looking good for President Trump. Another recent poll found that Trump would lose to the top four Democratic presidential candidates if the election were held today.
As The Daily Wire previously reported:
The survey also asked about favorability. While all four top Democratic candidates are performing well, President Trump’s favorability rating is underwater at 42% “favorable” versus 56% “unfavorable.” The only Democratic candidate whose favorability comes close to negativity is Sen. Kamala Harris’ (D-CA) at 41% “favorable” and 40% “unfavorable.”
As of August 26, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by 8.6%, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leads by 5.6%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) leads by 3.2%, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) leads by 2.2%, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg leads by 0.3%, per RCP.