On Wednesday, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump by 4% in the swing state of Florida. The poll, which was conducted between April 16 – 20 on “1,385 self-identified registered voters” in Florida, has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 points.
The survey asked: “If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?”
46% of respondents said they would vote for Biden, while 42% said they would vote for Trump. Party identification breakdowns were unsurprising, and independents favored Biden to Trump 44% to 37%.
A significant differential can be seen between male and female Floridians. While male voters in the state favored Trump 47% to 41%, female voters favored Biden 51% to 38%.
Another interesting divergence emerges when looking at white Floridians with a four-year college degree versus ones without a four-year college degree. 51% of white, college-educated voters chose Biden, while 40% chose Trump. 58% of those without a degree chose Trump, while just 35% chose Biden.
8% of African American respondents said they would vote for President Trump, while 73% said they would vote for Joe Biden. While Trump’s 8% tracks with his 2016 numbers, Biden’s fall well below Hillary Clinton’s 84% from the last presidential election.
Trump’s Hispanic voter percentage in this poll (38%) tracks with his 2016 performance (35%), while Biden’s number (46%) falls well below Hillary Clinton’s number (62%) in 2016.
The survey also asked about favorability of the candidates.
The president’s favorability in the poll is underwater at 43% “favorable” to 50% “unfavorable.” Biden barely eked out a positive number, with 43% “favorable” to 40% “unfavorable.” An astonishing 14% of Floridians surveyed “haven’t heard enough” to make up their minds on Joe Biden.
The survey shows a distinct advantage for Trump with the economy, but an advantage for Biden on health care.
The survey asked: “Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling – the economy: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?”
Trump won over Biden in this scenario 50% to 44%.
The survey asked: “Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling – health care: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?”
In this scenario, Biden clobbered Trump 54% to 39%.
This is just one poll in one swing state, and as such, isn’t necessarily representative of anything other than a snapshot in time. According to the RealClearPolitics polling averages, Biden leads Trump by a 3.4 percentage point margin in Florida, and nationally, the former vice president leads Trump by 5.9 percentage points.
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