A Pennsylvania bakery currently reports that Trump-themed cookies are outselling Biden-themed cookies at a 6 to 1 rate.
Speaking with Fox News, Kathleen Lochel, owner of Lochel Bakery, says that Trump cookies are such a hot commodity that people are even driving from nearby states just to pick one up.
“We had one guy drive twice from Staten Island for them,” said Lochel.
Does any of that matter? Apparently so. According to Lochel, the “cookie poll,” which began two months ago, has accurately predicted the outcome of the last three elections.
“We plan on tallying them up tomorrow night, to do our final tally,” she said. “But right now, Donald Trump is still in the lead… we’ve sold about 28,000 [Trump] cookies to 5,000 [of Biden’s]. By the end of today’s sales, knowing the orders we have, [Trump cookie sales] should probably approach 29,000.”
“This is definitely by far the busiest we’ve ever been,” she added, noting that cookie sales are higher than even during the Christmas season.
The cookie poll tally will cease Tuesday night and will not continue past election day, even if votes remain unaccounted for. In the event of a Biden or Trump victory, Lochel Bakery will be selling celebratory cookies to whichever camp that wins the White House.
“I think people just love that they’re participating in something,” she said. “It brings people together, regardless of the Democrats or Republicans.”
“If people could just look at the whole picture, and see that a small business has overcome the pandemic by thinking out of the box… I hope that inspires others to stay afloat, stay the course, and hopefully we’ll all survive,” she added.
While the cookie poll has President Trump up by wide margins, what do the actual polls say? That depends entirely on who’s doing the polling and the methods used. Speaking with Politico, Arie Kapteyn, head of USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, and Robert Cahaly, a Republican pollster with the Trafalgar Group, said that the mainstream polls are using outdated methods and are drastically undermining the very real phenomenon of the “shy” Trump voter.
“Relying on live callers for polls is especially bad in this modern era, where ‘social desirability bias’ is in full play,” said Cahaly. “People avoid awkward conversations. So when a person you don’t know calls and asks how you feel about Donald Trump—and you don’t know how they feel—you tend to give them an answer that you think will make them look at you in the best light. We’ve seen it year after year, and I think it is very much at play this year.”
Both Kapteyn and Cahaly accurately predicted President Trump’s Electoral College victory in 2016.