One single poll stands out amid a virtual sea of data that all predict a landslide victory for New York City’s Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani — a self-described Democratic socialist — and suggests that perhaps he doesn’t have a complete lock on the Big Apple.
The poll in question, released on Monday by Atlas Intel, surveyed 2,404 likely voters in New York City between October 31 and November 2, and shows Mamdani with a rapidly dwindling lead of under five points — with less than 48 hours to go before polls close.
The major shift, according to the data, appears to be a rapid drop off in support for Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa (-8.6%) just since the previous poll covering October 25-30. In addition to the drop in support for Sliwa, the poll also showed a bump of 3.3% for Mamdani and a much larger bump (5.4%) for former Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY).
📊FINAL ATLAS POLL
2025 NYC Mayoral Election
Mamdani (D) leads with 43.9% of the vote (+3.3 since Oct. 30), while Cuomo (I) trails close behind at 39.4% (+5.4 since Oct. 30). With Sliwa (R) dropping 8.6pp, the gap between Mamdani and Cuomo decreased to 4.5pp. pic.twitter.com/cP1FZqpoAH
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2025
But the poll did not stop there. Respondents were also asked how they might vote if the race were narrowed down to just Cuomo and Mamdani — and the results showed that while Mamdani had made slight gains, Cuomo still came out on top.
3⃣ Since Oct. 30, the gap between Mamdani and Cuomo in a hypothetical election scenario where Eric Adams is still in the race decreased by 2.8pp. Meanwhile, voting intention for Sliwa decreased by 8.1pp. pic.twitter.com/nxwOjXeN1O
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2025
The demographic breakdown gave a clearer picture of what might ultimately come out of New York City’s election on Tuesday. Male voters preferred Mamdani 50.6% to 33%, while women preferred Cuomo 45.1% to 37.4%. Mamdani had the edge with voters aged 18-44, while voters over 45 preferred Cuomo.
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When it came to partisanship, Democrats unsurprisingly said they’d support Mamdani 61.6% to 35% for Cuomo — and 2.5% for Sliwa. Among Republicans, 52.1% said they’d support Sliwa, 42% would support Cuomo, and 4.9% would support Mamdani. Among Independents, however, Cuomo led with 53.1% — and Sliwa (18.6%) and Mamdani (29.9%) lagged far behind.
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