Popular oddsmaker Polymarket announced on Tuesday that Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) is 30 times more likely to be charged with a crime than he is to be elected the next President of the United States.
The betting site shared that information along with additional data showing that he had a 23% chance of being charged within one year — by December 31, 2026 — and there was a 9% chance that he could be facing charges in as little as 90 days, by March 31, 2026.
JUST IN: Tim Walz is now 30x more likely to be criminally charged than be the next President of the United States. pic.twitter.com/l5MrzbdAEO
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) December 30, 2025
Related predictions show that there is a 52% chance that someone — although no one was named specifically — will be charged in the recently-revealed daycare fraud largely connected to the Somali community by January 31, 2026. The chances were much greater (89%) that charges will come by June 30, 2026, and still greater (94%) that they will come by December 31, 2026.
As far as Walz’s political aspirations, the site showed a 5% chance that he would announce a presidential run before 2027, a 1% chance that he’d win the 2028 Democratic nomination, and a 1% chance that he’d ultimately be successful in winning the presidency. Vice President JD Vance still tops the odds in that last category, with a 31% chance of winning the presidency in 2028.
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Should things not go Walz’s way, however, Polymarket puts the odds of him resigning as Governor of Minnesota before 2027 at 52%. The odds that he will resign by June 30, 2026, are set at 15%, and the odds that he will resign prior to January 31, 2026, are set at 3%.
Walz has been under fire for weeks as layer after layer of fraud has been uncovered in the state of Minnesota — and much of it took place on his watch or was made easier due to policies he put into place while serving as governor.
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