On Monday, rumors circulated that the United States is predicted to have 200,000 new confirmed cases and 3,000 novel coronavirus deaths daily by June 1. The New York Times, for example, ran with the report, suggesting the modeling figures were attributed to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and cited in a presentation by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
The Trump administration, however, pushed back on the reporting Monday night, noting that the model data “is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force,” nor has it been properly vetted or presented during a White House task force meeting.
The daunting New York Times report positioned the alleged internal data against President Donald Trump’s promise to start reopening the American economy: “As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks,” the Times report said. “The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, a 70 percent increase from the current number of about 1,750.”
However, according to the Trump administration, the CDC, and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, that is untrue.
“The President’s phased guidelines to open up America again are a scientific driven approach that the top health and infectious disease experts in the federal government agreed with,” the statement continued, a clear rebuke of the Times’ political angle hitting Trump for advancing any economic reopening of the country.
“The health of the American people remains President Trump’s top priority and that will continue as we monitor the efforts by states to ease restrictions,” the statement concluded.
WH response to NYT report of an internal CDC document that projects 3,000 daily #coronavirus deaths by June 1 and 200,000 daily new cases by the end of the month https://t.co/tHwfrEl2dP pic.twitter.com/3QgimN4vq0
— Sara Cook (@saraecook) May 4, 2020
According to Cook, “A CDC source says this modeling data was ‘incorrectly attributed to CDC.’ They would not respond as to whether they contributed to other parts of this document, and if the actual projections were from FEMA or another agency.”
“The projections published in the [New York Times] are based on a model developed by Johns Hopkins researchers & provided to FEMA to help in scenario-planning, [CBS’ Paula Reid] reports,” Cook posted. “The data isn’t final, and shows one model of how COVID-19 could reach these levels dependent on various factors.”
The projections published in the NYT are based on a model developed by Johns Hopkins researchers & provided to FEMA to help in scenario-planning, @PaulaReidCBS reports. The data isn't final, and shows one model of how COVID-19 could reach these levels dependent on various factors
— Sara Cook (@saraecook) May 4, 2020
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health released a statement similarly pushing back against the Times report, noting that it included “preliminary analyses” and emphasizing that was not intended to be “used as forecasts” “and it is not accurate to present them as forecasts.”
Statement from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (h/t @PaulaReidCBS) @CBSNews pic.twitter.com/Mgo73eYPii
— Sara Cook (@saraecook) May 4, 2020
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