NYC’s Mayoral Race Takes Sharp Turn, Putting Muslim Socialist Neck-And-Neck With Cuomo

Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani surged to within single digits of disgraced former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary race, according to newly released polling.

According to a PIX 11/Emerson College poll released earlier this week, Mamdani, a 33-year-old Muslim from Queens who is a state assemblyman, trails Cuomo 54.4% to 45.6% after 10 simulated rounds of ranked-choice voting, a notable improvement from late March when Cuomo was ahead 38% to 10%.

“Cuomo has led in the polls since early 2025, but Mamdani has surged, gaining 23 points and winning second-choice votes nearly 2-to-1, cutting Cuomo’s ranked-choice lead from 12 points to 9 points,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “With four weeks to go, the question is whether Cuomo can run out the clock, or if he needs to win over second-choice voters to hold off Mamdani’s momentum.”

Cuomo maintained his strong lead in the early rounds of ranked choice voting in the poll, with Mamdani only closing the gap in later rounds.

In ranked-choice voting, voters rank up to five candidates in order of preference, and if no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their votes are redistributed based on voters’ next choices until someone wins a majority.

The ranked-choice voting system appears to be working to Mamdani’s advantage, as, according to the poll, he continues gaining ground by picking up second-choice votes after other candidates are eliminated.

Per the Emerson report, “35% of voters support former Governor Andrew Cuomo on the first round of the ballot, 23% support State Rep. Zohran Mamdani, 11% support Comptroller Brad Lander, 9% former State Rep. Scott Stringer, 8% City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, and 5% State Senator Zellnor Myrie.”

“Cuomo’s strongest support comes from black voters (74%), voters over 50 (66%), and women (58% to 42%),” Kimball added. “Mamdani leads among voters under 50 with 61%, and holds an edge among white voters (57% to 43%) and college-educated voters (58% to 42%).”

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Cuomo’s campaign maintains that the Emerson poll is an “outlier,” with campaign spokesman Rich Azzopardi telling the Washington Examiner that the ex-governor “is the consistent and overwhelming frontrunner in this race.”

However, Mamdani has effectively formed strategic alliances with other left-wing candidates in an effort to block the 67-year-old former governor’s political comeback and consolidate his base.

Mamdani called on his supporters to contribute to rival progressive Adrienne Adams’ campaign in order to help her qualify for matching public funds in a slight against Cuomo, aiming to pick up second-choice votes after other candidates are eliminated.

In a hypothetical general election matchup, the poll shows Cuomo performs better against Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, with Cuomo winning 44% support compared to 35% for Mamdani if he were the Democratic nominee. Sliwa is the founder of the Guardian Angels and lost the 2021 mayoral election to current New York Mayor Eric Adams, a registered Democrat running this cycle as an independent, according to Emerson College Polling.

Meanwhile, incumbent Mayor Adams, running as an independent, would receive just 10% support against Cuomo but would climb to 15% against Mamdani.

Mamdani, elected to the State Assembly in 2020, has positioned himself as a leftist alternative to Cuomo’s more moderate brand of Democratic politics, campaigning on free public bus fares, free child care, and city-run grocery stores.

Mandani’s campaign celebrated the results of the poll, stating, “Andrew Cuomo has hit his ceiling, while we’re nowhere near ours,” per The New York Post. Mamdani himself posted on X, “We’re now 8 points away from sending Andrew Cuomo back to the suburbs.”

We’re now 8 points away from sending Andrew Cuomo back to the suburbs. https://t.co/yFfhKZkg3C

— Zohran Kwame Mamdani (@ZohranKMamdani) May 28, 2025

The Post adds that ranked-choice surveys released by other pollsters, including Mamdani’s own polling released on Tuesday, show Cuomo defeating the democratic socialist by significant margins.

The Emerson poll was conducted with 1,000 registered NYC voters with a margin of error of +/- 3%, and the ranked choice voting simulation included 500 Democrats, excluding undecided voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

The primary election is scheduled for June 24, with early voting beginning June 14.