On Saturday, CNN/University of New Hampshire released a new poll out of New Hampshire, which shows Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) with a somewhat comfortable lead, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg closing the gap in second, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and former Vice President Joe Biden tanking.
The poll was conducted between February 4-7 on 715 “randomly selected New Hampshire adults,” 365 of whom were “likely 2020 Democratic primary voters,” and features an overall +/-3.7 point margin of error, and a +/-5.1 point MoE among the Democratic respondents.
Prior to reading a rotating list of names, the pollsters asked: “If the Democratic primary for President were held today, which of the following would you support for the Democratic nomination?”
28% of respondents chose Sanders, while 21% chose Buttigieg. Biden could only muster 11% support, while Warren grabbed 9%. Rounding out the top six were Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) with 6%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) with 5%.
The poll differs fairly significantly from another CNN/University of New Hampshire poll conducted in January. In that poll, support for Sanders stood at 25%, and support for Buttigieg stood at 15%. Biden and Warren pulled in 16% and 12%, respectively. Sanders and Buttigieg have both made strong gains, while Biden and Warren have lost support by near the same numbers.
If we go back even further to October, Sanders was still on top, but his numbers were lower, and the placement of the other prime candidates were inverted. Sanders showed 21% support, Warren came in second with 18%, Biden in third with 15%, and Buttigieg in fourth with just 10%.
This shows a progression for Buttigieg of 11%, and 7% for Sanders, as well as a 9% drop for Warren, and an 4% drop for Biden.
The survey also asked: “Which of the candidates running for the Democratic nomination would you not vote for under any circumstances?”
Biden tops the list with 17%, Warren comes in second with 16%, Sanders in third with 11%, and Gabbard in fourth with 9%. Interestingly, only 3% of likely voters surveyed would not vote for Pete Buttigieg “under any circumstances.”
Another interesting result came when the pollsters asked: “Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary, are you leaning toward someone, or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”
While 51% of respondents have their minds made up, a whopping 30% of likely voters said that they are “still trying to decide.”
These two results bode well for Buttigieg and Sanders as they, to varying degrees, try to ride the post-Iowa wave into the New Hampshire primary, which takes place on Tuesday.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average for the state of New Hampshire, Sanders leads Buttigieg by a decent 4.2% margin (26.4% to 22.2%), while Biden (12.6%) and Warren (12.2%) duke it out for third place.
That said, the polling for the Iowa caucus was quite off the mark. Until results begin to roll in on Tuesday, it’s impossible to know with certainty if New Hampshire’s polling will follow the same track.