The 2026 midterm elections have an unlikely focal point: Maine.
The state’s Democratic primary has been marred with drama since self-styled populist Graham Platner was revealed to have made social media posts bashing cops and labeling himself a “communist.” Platner, who is battling Governor Janet Mills for the opportunity to face incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins, has been bleeding staff since it came to light that he had a Nazi symbol tattooed on his chest.
Then Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) announced earlier this week that he would not be seeking re-election to Maine’s Second Congressional District. The Cook Political Report promptly moved the race from “toss-up” to “Likely Republican.”
“After much deliberation, I’ve decided not to seek reelection in 2026,” the Democrat posted to X on Wednesday. “I’m confident that were I to run again, I would win. But recent events have made me reconsider whether the good I can do in Congress still outweighs the cost to my family.”
The race, along with a few others, might be one of the few chances for Republicans to beef up their congressional representation in New England, as Collins is the only Republican representing the region in Washington.
In 2024, President Donald Trump won the district with 54%, but Golden has held on to the seat since he first won in 2018, a Democratic flip. The district covers northern Maine and is significantly more red compared with the deep blue First Congressional District. Last year, Golden defeated Republican Austin Theriault by roughly 2,700 votes.
“Serial flip-flopper Jared Golden’s exit from Congress says it all: He’s turned his back on Mainers for years and now his chickens are coming home to roost,” National Republican Campaign Committee Spokeswoman Maureen O’Toole said in a statement earlier this week when he called it quits. “He, nor any other Democrat, has a path to victory in ME-02 and Republicans will flip this seat red in 2026.”
Maine’s former Republican Governor Paul LePage, who served from 2011-2019, is running for Golden’s seat, posting to X on Thursday a meme saying “Shot” with a poll for LePage beating Golden, and then “chaser” as a headline showing that the Democrat would not run for re-election.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also commented on Golden’s retirement, suggesting that Tuesday night’s election results gave promising signs for Democrats.
“Last night’s election results make clear that voters are ready to elect a Democratic majority that keeps its promise to lower costs and fight for everyday people. Democrats will do everything necessary to keep this seat blue so that Mainers continue to have a voice fighting for them in Congress — and we are confident we will be successful,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in a statement on Wednesday.
There’s fairly limited wiggle room in New England for Republicans to succeed, despite currently holding the governorship in New Hampshire and Vermont.
If a Republican wins the Maine seat, they would be the only one in the House chamber for the region, unless they also flip the seat left open by Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH), who’s running for Senate, and Rep. Maggie Goodlander’s seat. Cook Political Report ranks both New Hampshire seats as “Likely Democrat,” along with Connecticut’s Fifth Congressional District.
As for New Hampshire’s Senate race, a tough battle is underway for the open seat, as former Republican Sen. John Sununu is in a primary with former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. Whoever wins the primary will presumably face off against Pappas. Cook Political Report ranks the New Hampshire race to succeed Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen as “Lean Democrat” and the Maine race as a “toss-up.”
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