In a piece published early Tuesday morning, prominent statistician and political analyst Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, explained why the Democrats’ debacle in Iowa “might have screwed up the whole nomination process.”
“In trying to build a forecast model of the Democratic primaries, we literally had to think about the entire process from start (Iowa) to finish (the Virgin Islands on June 6),” Silver begins. “Actually, we had to do more than that. Since the nomination process is sequential — states vote one at a time rather than all at once — we had to determine, empirically, how much the results of one state can affect the rest.”
.png)
.png)
