Morning Brief: Trump Sells Arms To Ukraine & Teases Russia Sanctions, Polling & Biden’s Autopen

Trump amps up the pressure on Russia – imposing additional tariffs and arming Ukraine with military weapons if Putin doesn’t agree to a deal. As Trump continues to rack up political wins, he and the GOP could be facing headwinds in the midterms. And, Joe Biden lashes out at the Trump administration over their investigations into his use of the autopen. 

It’s Tuesday, July 15, and this is the news you need to know to start your day.

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Good Cop, Bad Cop

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Topline: President Trump announced a massive sale of weapons to Ukraine Monday, while issuing new economic threats for any country doing business with Russia.

President Trump campaigned on a promise to “stop the endless flow of American treasure to Ukraine” — meaning weapons and money. On Inauguration Day, he signed an executive order freezing all military aid to Ukraine for 90 days. Initially, Trump said he was confident that the pause would send a message to Zelensky that he couldn’t go on fighting forever and show Putin that the U.S. was acting in good faith to stop the conflict. 

But now, after nearly half a year of negotiations where Moscow has stalled peace talks time and time again, Trump is taking a very different approach, essentially telling Putin if he won’t end the war, America will ensure Ukraine is armed to the teeth while increasing sanctions to tighten the screws on the Russian economy. Those tariffs would target not just Russia, which the U.S. does very little trade with, but countries that trade with Russia, most notably China and India, which rely heavily on Russian oil.

“We’re very very unhappy with him,” Trump said in a statement from the Oval Office on Monday, warning the Russian president that the United States was going to impose “very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days.”

Trump announced Monday that he’d be selling ten billion dollars worth of weapons, including Patriot missiles, artillery shells, and air defense systems to NATO. NATO will then ship the weapons directly to Kyiv as soon as this week. Long-range offensive weapons that could strike deep within Russian territory will be included in that arsenal. White House officials were quick to note Monday that, unlike the Biden administration, which essentially gave billions of dollars worth of weapons and cash, no strings attached, this deal will ensure the U.S. is compensated for its support.

According to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who joined Trump at the White House Monday to announce the deal, the idea was first presented by Zelensky at the NATO summit two weeks ago. President Trump was initially unsure of the idea, but as Putin has intensified his attacks on Ukrainian population centers, he saw giving Zelensky weapons as the best way to force Putin to the table.

The March Towards 2026

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Topline: While President Trump and Republicans have enjoyed a series of major political wins, they also face some potential headwinds – including the Epstein controversy, Elon Musk’s threat to fund alternative candidates, and negative media coverage of ICE raids.

The political landscape continues to be shaped by evolving public opinion – however, despite some turbulence in support for the Trump administration, and the backing of the world’s wealthiest man, Elon Musk, a hypothetical ‘America Party’ seems unlikely to succeed.

“I don’t think that America is ever going to be anything but a two-party country,” Brent Buchanan, president of Cygnal Polling, told The Daily Wire. Buchanan noted that Musk’s political favorability ratings have fallen dramatically since his falling out with the president last month, further complicating any hopes that a Musk-led effort could overturn the duopoly that has traditionally dominated American politics. “[Musk] was upside down by eight points, meaning eight points more unfavorable than favorable at the beginning of May. And we now have him upside down by 25 points. So if your standard bearer has had that massive degradation of an image among voters, you know, what kind of starting point is that for starting a party?”

Despite persistent media narratives suggesting a downturn, President Trump’s image in polling remains remarkably steady, according the Buchanan. Buchanan also stated that Cygnal’s weekly tracking data, maintained “since the inauguration,” shows Trump “is upside down by five in our polling data for the last several months, every single week, no change at all … it’s amazing to see how it almost doesn’t matter what happens. His base is with him.” 

Regarding the intensified ICE raids and the federal government’s disputes with blue states like California, Buchanan asserts these actions are politically advantageous for the President. He explained that “voters really trust him on immigration more than any other issue, more than economic issues,” allowing him to “lean into” the issue. Buchanan highlighted post-election research indicating that “many of the non-white, non-educated college voters who had moved over to Donald Trump” were motivated by “issues of cultural decay,” using immigration as an example of concerns about the rule of law. He clarified that these voters “stand for the rule of law and they believe you should come here legally,” concluding that the “ICE raids are actually something that is dividing the electorate further, but it’s dividing it to Donald Trump’s advantage.”

Looking ahead, Buchanan suggested that the primary challenge for Republicans and the Trump administration is not a lack of favorable issues, but rather effective communication. Prioritizing wins and making them “real to the voter” will be key to maintaining their support in future elections.

Biden Breaks His Silence On The Autopen

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Topline: Joe Biden broke his silence over the weekend about the unprecedented use of the president’s pardon power in his final days in office. It’s been widely speculated that White House staffers utilized the autopen without clear presidential approval. 

In a lengthy interview with The New York Times, former President Biden claimed he was in full control during the final days of his administration and authorized every use of his autopen. According to the Times, for the vast majority of those pardons, Biden gave his staff orders to compile a list of prisoners and convicts who met certain criteria – all people convicted of low-level drug offenses, for instance – and left most of the execution and details to them. We know from the Times that Biden’s staff updated the list as it received more information, but never ran the updated list past the president again. Instead, staff used the autopen system to sign these mass pardons and commutations based on the president’s prior approval of the criteria. 

Biden said the autopen was the only efficient way to sign all these orders. He told the Times, “The autopen is, you know, is legal,” and he added, “the point is that, you know, we’re talking about a whole lot of people.”

President Biden approved a few of the names personally, such as the unprecedented preemptive pardon of Gen. Mark Milley, as well as the blanket preemptive pardons of his family members. Biden said those were necessary to keep them safe from political prosecution from Trump, even though they had yet to be charged with any crimes.

Republicans (and even a few Democrats) have criticized the liberal dispensation of pardons and commutations to prisoners who, in some cases, were convicted of very heinous crimes.  For instance, Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) said that “someone dropped the ball” on the clemency of Adrian Peeler. He was convicted in 1999 of conspiracy to murder a mother and her 8-year-old son. He was sentenced to 25 years in prison on state charges, and 35 years on federal drug charges that stemmed from the same case. Peeler was one of 2,500 people granted clemency on January 17.

In a post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, Senator Eric Schmitt(R-MO) cited five possible laws that may have been broken according to the Times’ report,  including fraud, forgery, and misuse of government property. The House Oversight Committee put up a post that said the Times’ report “quietly confirms Biden aides used the autopen to issue executive actions WITHOUT a clear sign he even approved them.”