Well, That Didn’t Work
Democrats in Pennsylvania decided to boost a MAGA longshot in the gubernatorial race. But now that he’s won the Republican nomination, there’s growing worry by Democrats that he could actually win.
Doug Mastriano, a strong Trump supporter as a state senator who worked to overturn the 2020 presidential election, had also drawn doubts from fellow Republicans that he could win.
Jackie Kulback, chairman of the Cambria County Republican Party, told Politico she wasn’t sure he could win in November, but much has changed.
“The higher the gas prices go, the more electable Mastriano is,” Kulback told the political website. “Honestly, I feel this is Mastriano’s campaign to lose.”
Mastriano will face Democrat Josh Shapiro, a veteran candidate with a lot of money. But the polls show a tight race, with two in June showing Shapiro leading by about four percentage points.
Larry Ceisler, a Pennsylvania-based public affairs consultant backing Shapiro, told Politico that Democrats are beginning to realize Mastriano could win.
“Most people are in a little bubble, where they talk to one other and say, ‘Boy, there’s no way Doug Mastriano can beat Josh Shapiro.’ Well, you know what? Those people don’t get off the turnpike,” he said. “It wakes some people as to: It’s a real campaign, and yes, there really are people who are for Doug Mastriano, and this is not going to be a walk in the park.”
A Dem In GOP Clothing
With President Joe Biden’s approval rating in the dumpster amid soaring inflation and gas prices, it’s not a great time to be a Democrat.
So one Democratic candidate in Ohio is trying to sound more like a Republican.
Tim Ryan, a candidate for U.S. Senate, is running ads on Fox News featuring conservative-sounding language — including compliments from Fox News’ opinion hosts. His latest ad, airing only on Fox last week, shows him winning kudos from none other than Tucker Carlson.
“You are on the stump and you talk bread and butter issues, economy, kitchen table issues,” Bret Baier says in the ad. Other hosts use the word “moderate” to describe Ryan, with one saying he is “hanging out in the middle like most of us are.”
Ryan has also avoided appearing with Biden, as many other Democrats have. When Biden popped into the state earlier, Ryan was nowhere to be seen. “Tim has a full day of previously-scheduled campaign events along the Ohio River,” a Ryan spokesman told The Washington Times.
And it’s worth remembering that former President Donald Trump won Ohio, long a swing state, by eight points in both 2016 and 2020.
Poof, He’s Gone
On Tuesday, former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) dropped his bid to represent the left-leaning 10th Congressional District, admitting that “it’s not going work out.”
“I’ve really listened carefully to people and it’s clear to me that when it comes to this congressional district, people are looking for another option. And I respect that,” the former mayor said.
De Blasio, who served as mayor of New York City from 2014 to 2021 and made a brief run for president in 2020, announced his bid for Congress in May. But he never caught on.
De Blasio had been trailing most of the Democratic field in the district, which includes parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn, in recent polls, with one showing he had just 3% of the vote.
Much To Do In Michigan
Political soothsayers are predicting a red wave in the mid-term elections, and Republicans in Michigan are hoping that can push them to a win against Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Five GOP candidates will be on the ballot for the nomination on August 2 after the early favorite, former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, was disqualified for forged signatures on his qualifying petition.
The disqualification of Craig, who vows to run a write-in campaign, threw the race into chaos and opened up the nomination to some lesser-known pols.
In recent polling, former businesswoman and political commentator Tudor Dixon appears to be the favorite. Dixon has recently been labeled the “establishment candidate” by at least two of her opponents, Garrett Soldano and Kevin Rinke, after she received an endorsement from the powerful DeVos family. Richard DeVos Jr. is a multi-billionaire, and his wife, Betsy, is the former Secretary of Education in the Trump administration.
The race has not been short of drama. Candidate Ryan Kelley was arrested by the FBI and charged with misdemeanors related to his presence at the January 6 Capitol riot. Yet Kelley has done well in the polls following his arrest and has vowed to stay in the race despite his upcoming trial.
So far, no one has won the endorsement of former President Donald Trump.
Incumbents Rule In GA
Incumbents won more than 90% of the congressional races in 2020, according to Ballotpedia.
So it’s no surprise that both incumbent Democrats and Republicans are leading their gubernatorial and Senate races in Georgia, according to the most recent polls.
GOP gubernatorial nominee and incumbent governor Brian Kemp leads Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams by seven points, 52% – 45%, according to a recent poll conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, which surveyed 1,197 likely state voters between July 5 – July 11.
Meanwhile, Democratic senatorial nominee and incumbent Raphael Warnock leads GOP nominee Herschel Walker by three points, 50% – 47%, according to that same poll. But Walker has won the endorsement of Trump, which may mean something when voters cast their votes on November 8.
Carin’ For Karrin
Former Vice President Mike Pence has endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson for governor in Arizona.
“As Arizona Democrats pursue the reckless Biden-Harris agenda, Karrin Taylor Robson is the only candidate for Governor that will keep Arizona’s border secure and streets safe, empower parents and create great schools, and promote conservative values,” Pence said. “Karrin is the best choice for Arizona’s future, and I am proud to support her.”
Taylor Robson said she’s honored to receive the endorsement of Pence, who will appear with her at campaign events this Friday in Phoenix and southern Arizona.
“Mike Pence has been a warrior for the conservative values we hold most dear: the sanctity of Life; limited government; law and order; opportunity for all; vigorous defense of the 2nd Amendment; and the knowledge that our freedoms are granted by God,” Taylor Robson said. “Modern politics is full of charlatans and fakes, but Vice President Pence is the genuine article. He has never wavered in his conservative beliefs and commitment to our Constitution, and left a rock-solid legacy as Governor to which I will aspire.”
A Look At Cook
The Cook Political Report has been tracking congressional races for years, so we’ll tell you its updated projections for the 2022 midterms each week.
House
Solid Democrat — 162
Solid Republican — 191
Toss Ups — 34
Both parties have 13 seats considered “likely” and 11 that “lean” their way.
But here’s an interesting pair of numbers: The Democrats currently hold 26 of the toss-up seats, while Republicans hold just eight.
Joseph Curl has covered politics for 35 years, including 12 years as White House correspondent for a national newspaper. He was also the a.m. editor of the Drudge Report for four years. Send tips to [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @josephcurl.