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Michigan Senate Race: Can John James Win? Here Are The Final Polls

   DailyWire.com
TRAVERSE CITY, MI - NOVEMBER 02: John James, a Republican U.S. Senate candidate speaks during a campaign rally on November 2, 2020 in Traverse City, Michigan. President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are making multiple stops in swing states ahead of the general election on November 3rd.
Rey Del Rio/Getty Images

Republican businessman John James is running to represent Michigan in the U.S. Senate for the second time in two years, and this time, he’s running against one of the least known senators in the entire country, literally.  

Around the time James’ opponent Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) announced his plan to seek re-election, a poll conducted by the Michigan-based Glengariff Group found that nearly 4 in 10 of his own constituents had never even heard of him, according to Detroit News.

James, on the other hand, had just lost a 2018 senate bid to long-time Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) by nearly 6.5%. That same midterm election also sent Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gretchen Whitmer to the Michigan governor’s office by nearly 10 points, where she replaced outgoing Republican Governor Rick Snyder in a state that previously helped send 2016 Republican nominee Donald Trump to the White House. 

So what do the polls say about the state of the Michigan senate race? James is the clear underdog in the race. 

According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, the most recent Michigan senate race polling shows Peters leading James by about 5.4 points, slightly higher than Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s 4.2 polling lead over President Donald Trump in the state. 

Two polls conducted by Emerson and Mitchell Research late last week show Peters leading James by five points, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted over five days and ending on November 1 shows Peters leading James by seven points. 

Recent “A” or “B” rating polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight show Peters with anything from a 5 point lead to a 15 point lead over James. But when only the “A+” rating results are analyzed, Peters is found to be leading James by either four, six, or eight points. 

Furthermore, FiveThirtyEight reports James has about a 17% chance of winning the election against Peters, which is still far greater than the chances it gives Trump of winning the state, which it estimates are about 1 in 20. 

So, if the Michigan polls are right, James has about the same chance of winning his senate race, and ousting Peters from a seat Democrats have held since 1979, as the chances of rolling a “1” on a six-sided die. 

According to Cook Political Report, Peters is the second-most vulnerable Democratic senator up for re-election at a time when Republicans have been tasked with defending nearly twice as many senate seats as them (a factor of the GOP’s 2014 senate victories). Only one other seat is more likely to flip Republican than Michigan’s senate seat — the Alabama senate seat currently held by Doug Jones (D-AL).

Related: ELECTION DAY: Will Trump Pull It Off Again? All The Final Polls

Related: WATCH: Michigan GOP Senate Candidate John James Responds To Joe Biden Calling Him A ‘Disaster’

Related: John James Bashes Dem Party Leadership: ‘Cares More About The Black Vote Than The Black People’

Related: Schumer Pours Huge Funds Into Michigan To Save Democratic Senate Seat, Defeat John James, Report Says

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