Lindsey Graham’s Sister Surges To Frontrunner Status On Back Of Trump Endorsement

Sen. Darline Graham’s (R-SC) odds of winning South Carolina’s special Republican primary skyrocketed from 14% to 80% in four days after President Donald Trump endorsed her, according to the prediction market Kalshi.

CNN data analyst Harry Enten argued Tuesday that Trump’s endorsement has made Graham the overwhelming favorite in the August 11 special Republican primary to fill the seat left vacant by the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham.

WATCH:

Darline Graham’s now the favorite in SC. Why? Trump’s endorsement = most powerful I’ve ever seen.

In senate primaries with no elected incumbent, his picks have won ~95% since 2022 & 100% in 2026.

His own party approval is highest this century for a prez at this pt in term 2. pic.twitter.com/urpkkeI9vd

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 21, 2026

“Darline Graham’s chances have rocketed up because rarely has the power of one man and his endorsements in primaries been as strong with Donald Trump,” Enten explained. He went on to cite the odds posted by Kalshi, which had Graham at 14% on July 17 and 80% just four days later — and he noted that the one major change in the interim was Trump’s endorsement, given before Graham had even declared her intent to seek a full term in office.

“Now, that’s not 100%,” Enten conceded, adding, “But it’s way, way higher than 14%. She’s the clear favorite to fill that seat, or at least win the primary.”

Enten noted that Graham was not an outlier, pointing to a number of recent primary races in which Trump had played kingmaker.

“When it comes to Senate primaries, Donald Trump’s record is magnificent,” he told anchor John Berman. “Since 2022, it’s about 95% of the time. This year, in fewer races, it’s 100% of the time. No wonder why the prediction markets and the conventional wisdom have moved so rapidly once Trump made that endorsement!”

Trump’s weight in recent primaries has been nearly insurmountable as candidate after candidate has soared to victory following a nod from the White House — and Graham now appears poised to follow suit in the August special primary for a seat Republicans are expected to retain in November.