Former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican field in four of the first GOP primaries and caucuses as he sits in a tie with President Joe Biden for the general election, according to the latest polling.
Nationally, Trump’s primary lead has increased to nearly 45 percentage points, according to the Real Clear Politics average, as he maintains a massive lead in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. The latest polls don’t appear to reflect any change stemming from Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel on October 7.
In Iowa, Trump has gained support in the polls, hitting 50% according to the RCP average and holding a 33-point lead over second-place candidate Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor has shifted his campaign’s focus to Iowa, where he has relocated a large portion of his staff. The DeSantis campaign, which employs 56 people, had four staffers in Iowa before it shifted nearly two dozen employees to Des Moines, The New York Times reported earlier this month. DeSantis’ polling numbers in the state dipped significantly over the summer, but he has seen a bump in recent weeks and now sits at 17%, according to the latest poll from Iowa St./Civiqs.
Trump’s support in New Hampshire has hovered around 45% while DeSantis has lost the second-place spot in the polls to former South Carolina Governor and U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley. Haley has risen to 14.2% in New Hampshire, according to the RCP average, while DeSantis has dropped to 10.4%. The Florida governor is now neck-and-neck in the state with former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who comes in at 9%. But as candidates jostle for second and third place in New Hampshire, Trump’s 30-percentage-point lead remains solid, increasing to nearly 50% in the latest USA Today/Suffolk and CBS News polls.
In South Carolina, the home state of Haley and Sen. Tim Scott, Trump is polling around 50%, even crossing the majority threshold in the latest poll from Winthrop. Haley looks to be the clear second-place candidate in the state, while DeSantis and Scott fight for third place. A Fox Business poll taken last month showed the former president at 46%, Haley at 18%, DeSantis at 10%, and Scott at 9%. The Winthrop poll taken at the end of last month had similar results for Haley and DeSantis but showed Trump at 51%.
A CNN poll, the first major poll taken in Nevada for the state’s caucus, showed Trump with a massive lead in the state, sitting at 65%. The poll released earlier this month showed Trump in the lead in the state by 52 points, with DeSantis coming in at 13% and Haley placing third at 6%.
Meanwhile, Trump is tied with Biden in a hypothetical general election rematch. The RCP average shows both candidates polling at 44.3%. In the last three polls, Biden slightly edged out Trump, but all three were within the margin of error. According to an Economist/YouGov poll taken earlier this week, Biden led Trump 43% to 42%. A Yahoo News poll and Morning Consult poll taken last week showed similar results, with Biden leading Trump by one percentage point and two percentage points, respectively. Trump led Biden by four percentage points in a CNBC poll taken last week, showing the former president at 46% to Biden’s 42%.
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The latest general election polling came a week after Israel was attacked by Hamas, setting up yet another foreign policy challenge for Biden, whose administration has been criticized for botching multiple global crises. In another recent CNBC survey, Biden had a near record-high disapproval rating of 58%, while only 31% approved of Biden’s handling of foreign policy.