In the frantic hours after Israelis cast their ballots on Tuesday, early exit polls briefly suggested that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reign might finally be coming to an end. But as official tallies filtered into Wednesday morning, political reality emerged: while Netanyahu fell short of an outright parliamentary majority, he remains firmly in control of Israel’s political destiny.
With roughly 71-77% of the ballots counted in the election for the 26th Knesset, the Central Elections Committee reported that Netanyahu’s Right-wing and religious alliance stood at around 54 seats, which is short of the 61 required for a majority in the 120-seat legislature.
The primary opposition, the anti-Netanyahu “change bloc” led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, lagged further behind at roughly 47 seats, even with turnout surging to 77.7%, Israel’s highest since 1999.
On paper, the results suggest another round of the gridlock that has been part of Israeli politics for years. But a closer examination underscores why Netanyahu has essentially won the contest, leaving his adversaries trapped in a strategic box.
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The central roadblock confronting Eisenkot’s opposition camp is that anti-Netanyahu factions cannot assemble a governing majority without integrating the Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra’am, which surged to a combined 19 seats amid an extraordinary 80% Arab turnout.
In a post–October 7 Israel, a Zionist coalition containing bereaved families who lost relatives to Hamas cannot comfortably govern alongside Arab lawmakers who have dismissed the threat of terrorist groups such as Hamas.
Eisenkot, whose Yashar party captured roughly 20 seats to finish second behind Netanyahu’s Likud at 27, now faces what some analysts describe as a dilemma from hell. His camp cannot rely on the Arab parties without alienating its own Right-leaning voters, but if he opts for another snap election, the electorate would move even further to the Right, as ultra-Orthodox turnout rebounds.
By contrast, Netanyahu holds virtually all the cards. With Likud solidifying its position as the largest single party, he can easily outlast his opponents. He can wait for soldiers’ ballots, which have not been counted yet and traditionally favor the political Right, to increase his numbers. He could peel away defectors from a fractured opposition. Or he could dictate punitive terms for a broad unity government. If talks collapse into fresh elections, demographic trends and religious mobilization favor his camp over an opposition that has fired its best shot.
In the end, the opposition’s hope that anger over the war and religious exemptions would decisively dislodge Netanyahu failed to materialize. His phone lines are open, and his rivals will ultimately have to call him.
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