Analysis of novel coronavirus-related international graphs and comparisons suggests stay-at-home orders and lockdowns do not have an effect on the shelf-life of COVID-19, which is about eight weeks, professor and Israel Space Agency chairman Isaac Ben-Israel explained Monday.
In light of his findings, the highly-regarded PhD has urged Israel to start re-opening the economy immediately and be back to full capacity by the end of April, arguing that Israel “will pay with more human lives with our health system in the current state.”
According to Ben-Israel, the nation is “already in the final stages of the coronavirus epidemic,” an Israeli National News report detailed Monday.
“The incidence of patients was greater by the day,” explained the professor. “This was during the first four weeks after the epidemic was discovered in Israel. As of the sixth week, the increase in the number of patients has been moderate, peaking in the sixth week at 700 patients per day. Since then it has been declining, and today there are only 300 new patients. In two weeks it will reach zero and there will be no more new patients.”
“This is how it is all over the world. Both in countries where they have taken closure steps like Italy and in countries that have not had closures like Taiwan or Singapore,” Ben-Israel emphasized. “In such and such countries there is an increase until the fourth to sixth week, and immediately thereafter moderation until during the eighth week it disappears.”
Ben-Israel has based his analysis off “various graphical studies to his colleagues, Prof. Ziegler of the Technion and Ronnie Yefarah, who helped him formulate his encouraging position,” Israeli National News noted. The data is “based entirely on past data without attempting to guess what will happen in the future,” according to the professor, the report said.
“This is happening both in countries that have closed down like us and in those that have not closed until today like Sweden, every country no matter its response. The decline and rise occur according to the same timeline,” Ben-Israel continued. “It’s clear to us how the epidemic is starting and what is causing the increase. What is causing the moderation is unclear.”
“I propose that we end the closures immediately after the current week,” he urged Israel. “We will start increasing the workforce from 15 percent to fifty percent and in two weeks we will reach 100 percent.”
The professor said good hygiene practices should continue, as well as mask-wearing, and the banning of excessively large crowds, claiming such action is prudent and will minimally hurt the economy.
“What bothers me is the damage to the economy,” he said. “We are paying NIS 100 billion a month because of this closure. This also has implications for health. We will pay with more human lives with our health system in the current state.”
Israel currently has 9,781 active cases and a total of 116 fatalities.