Since Texas’ switch from a blue to a red state in the 90s, Democrats have considered the Lone Star State (and its 38 electoral votes) a coveted prize to one day win back. Retaking Texas would likely cement a Democratic presidency for the foreseeable future, a fact not lost on liberal donors, who’ve already spent unprecedented amounts of money in an attempt to flip the state legislature there.
After gaining 12 seats in the Texas State House and reducing Republicans’ near supermajority to a mere 55% majority in 2018, it seemed that the momentum was in their favor. But on election night in 2020, Democrats were shocked by the results.
For years, two main theories have driven the Democrat strategy to win the state. First: that Texas and other Republican held states with large and growing minority populations are not truly red states. Instead, the theory is they are merely “under-voting” states. Democrats believed if they could significantly drive up voter turnout, infrequent and unlikely voters would break for left-wing candidates and deliver the necessary wins to change the political landscape.
Robert ‘Beto’ O’Rourke’s $80 million campaign came close to proving the Democrats’ strategy a success in the 2018 midterm election, with turnout increasing by a massive 20%. While not enough to deliver a win for O’Rourke, who fell three points short of beating Ted Cruz, the effects down-ballot were devastating to Texas Republicans. The O’Rourke turnout push resulted in Democrats picking up twelve seats in the state house, and two in the state senate reducing the Republican majority in both chambers dramatically. So, why couldn’t Democrats replicate their 2018 results in 2020?
They were wrong on their second electoral theory: accepting demographics as political destiny. Banking on demographics, rather than values or ideas, Democrats believed Texas’ move towards becoming a majority Hispanic state meant a blue flip was inevitable. If they could increase the percentage of Latinos participating in Texas elections, Republican victories would become a thing of the past.
Liberal donors went all in, accurately perceiving that 2020 was a do or die moment for them. It was widely believed that with Trump on the ballot, it would be easy to convince minority voters to flock to the polls for Democrats. Instead of focusing on the needs of local communities, Democrats played their tired song of identity politics. They spoke to voters based on the color of their skin and not on values and policy ideas. On election night, the Democrat effort to increase voter turnout seemed to have worked. Texas voters had, indeed, turned out in record numbers, beating 2016 turnout by over six points, but the wins that these new voters should have brought never materialized.
As the evening closed, Democrats had failed to net even a single seat in the Texas Legislature. One Republican state representative who lost re-election to a Democrat in 2018 even won his seat back. Heavily Hispanic counties along the Texas/Mexico border – like Zapata County, for instance, which has voted Democrat for over a century – went red. Far from driving Hispanic turnout for Democrats, Trump improved his vote share in some counties by over 10% across Southwest Texas. Tejanos appear to have connected with President Trump and his message in a way they had not with Republicans in 2018. If the Texas GOP can learn from 2020 and continue to make gains among the Hispanic community similar to those that Trump made, it has a near guaranteed majority in the future.
So, what did Trump’s apparent success with latino voters teach us? Ideas matter. Values matter. But, most of all, results matter. It turns out Americans, regardless of skin color or geography, are not interested in living in a God-less, socialist dystopia. Texans do not support abortion on demand or the dismantling of the traditional family structure.
Likewise, many Americans would rather not live off the government dole or have private gatherings forcibly limited to groups of ten people or less. And, while experts and pundits will be unpacking the results of this election for years, there was one distinct difference between the Trump running in 2016 and the Trump who ran in 2020: results. Regardless of race, Texans will show up to vote for Republicans who deliver real, tangible results. Nowhere was that more evident than along our now, safer and more secure, southern border, and those voters responded.
When I served in the Texas Senate, I was always struck by how Republican legislators lived in constant fear of being smeared by the leftwing, legacy media. I saw this fear cripple many of them from accomplishing anything beyond the status quo. Rather than ignoring the media and delivering on issues that matter to voters, they spent most of their time trying to win the affection of a group of elites who would never accept them. However, Texans could not have been more clear this election cycle. If Republicans at the state level are willing to fight the culture war, stand up to the media, and deliver real legislative victories for hard-working Texans, they’ll be rewarded. Republican politicians in Texas must learn from having almost lost the state once. Act boldly, ignore the media, and keep your promises.
Don Huffines is a former Texas State Senator. He founded Huffines Communities, one of the largest Real Estate land development companies in North Texas.
The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.
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