<p><em>This article has been updated since its original publication. </em></p>
<p>As Surgeon General Jerome Adams put it on Monday: the next two weeks will be America&#8217;s time window to see whether or not the COVID-19 pandemic will unfold like the panic-stricken Italy or the relatively stable South Korea, depending on how diligent people are about following guidelines.</p>
<p>In South Korea, as of this writing, the current death toll for COVID-19 stands at 66, which equals about 0.6% of those infected. Conversely, the death toll in Italy <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/health/italy-coronavirus-death-toll-now-tops-2-000/1768270">now tops 2,000</a> as the country&#8217;s healthcare system quickly becomes overwhelmed, with nurses and doctors having to make difficult decisions regarding which patients to whom they will administer care. Here&#8217;s why the pandemic unfolded so differently in the two countries, according to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html">CNN:</a></p>
<blockquote><p>Though testing is known to effectively reduce the risk of transmission, many experts are beginning to also associate more widespread testing with the statistic of greatest concern — survival from the disease.</p>
<p>The connection seems straightforward. Consider two countries with large outbreaks.</p>
<p>In South Korea, the rate of testing has been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-per-capita-chart-us-behind-2020-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">quite high</a> (3,692 tests per million people as of March 8), and its mortality among those infected quite low (about 0.6%, or 66 deaths, at last count).</p>
<p>By contrast, Italy tests about 826 people per million and its mortality among those with diagnosed infection is <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-how-many-coronavirus-tests-per-capita-have-been-completed" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">about</a> 10 times higher, with more than 1,000 people dead from the disease.</p></blockquote>
<p>Though COVID-19 testing works to help prevent the spread of infection (as opposed to treating the infection), it cannot necessarily be correlated with fewer deaths and a relatively stable healthcare apparatus. In fact, much of South Korea&#8217;s success in fighting this pandemic stems from several factors, including Italy&#8217;s high senior population and high smoking rate for women.</p>
<p>&#8220;According to <a href="https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/WPA2015_Report.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a UN report</a> in 2015, 28.6% of the Italian population was 60 years old or older (second in the world after Japan at 33%),&#8221; continued CNN. &#8220;This compares to South Korea, where 18.5% of the population is at least 60 years of age, ranking 53rd globally. The impact of this disparity is<a href="https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/covid-19-infografica_eng.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> quickly shown</a> in the analysis of coronavirus deaths in each county. In Italy, 90% of the more than 1,000 deaths occur in those 70 or older.&#8221;</p>
<p>In South Korea, 30% of COVID-19 patients were in their 20s versus just 20% 60 years or older. The survival rate breaks strongly along gender lines as well in South Korea, where at least 62% of cases were reported among women. If China provides a window, the death rate among men currently stands at 4.7% versus just 2.8% among women. None of this even accounts for the smoking rates in Italy among women.</p>
<p>&#8220;Smoking is another factor clearly associated with poor survival. <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/smoking-rates-by-country/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Smoking rates</a> are about the same between the two countries: 24% for Italians and 27% for South Koreans,&#8221; reported CNN. &#8220;But gender differences among smokers are widely different: In Italy, 28% of men versus 20% of women smoke, while in Korea, it is about 50% of men and less than 5% (!) of women. In other words, South Korea has an outbreak among youngish, non-smoking women, whereas Italy&#8217;s disease is occurring among the old and the very old, many of whom are smokers. (We do not know the male-female breakdown of Italy&#8217;s cases).&#8221;</p>
<p>Given that the United States has entered the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, we will not know exactly how it will spread among particular demographics for several weeks. Until then, <a href="https://www.dailywire.com/news/surgeon-general-we-can-turn-this-in-right-direction-if-americans-follow-key-precautions">follow the safety guidelines</a> as outlined by the surgeon general and practice social distancing.</p>
<p><em>The original article mistakenly said that the South Korean death rate stood at 0.06%. The article has been adjusted to say 0.6%.</em></p>

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Here’s Why COVID-19 Ravaged Italy While South Korea Remained Relatively Stable

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Here’s Why COVID-19 Ravaged Italy While South Korea Remained Relatively Stable