<p>With Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf term-limited in a state that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html">narrowly went</a> to Joe Biden in 2020, both Democrats and Republicans are scrambling to best position themselves for the 2022 gubernatorial race. Democrats have rallied around the commonwealth’s attorney general, Josh Shapiro; on the Republican side, it remains unclear whether a sizeable primary field will help or inhibit the party’s efforts to secure the top office.</p>
<p>More than a dozen Republicans are currently running in the Keystone State – with <a href="https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2021/12/06/former-congresswoman-melissa-hart-pennsylvania-governor/">announcements</a> coming from still more candidacies. <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dvrzSIZ8TJrIoGanRopkOzBbjR-mFv4v/view">Polls</a> have <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2021/Toplines-PAStatewide-GOPGubernatorial-PublicRelease-Oct21.pdf">indicated</a> former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, state Sen. President Pro Tempore Jake Corman (pictured, at right), and state Sen. Doug Mastriano (who <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2021/12/06/the-most-competitive-governors-races-one-year-out-799288">has yet to announce</a>) lead the pack. It’s a crowded and diverse field, whereas Democrats have yet to put forth someone notable in opposition to Shapiro.</p>
<p>“Josh Shapiro has cleared the Democratic field because he is a thoroughbred, a bona fide statewide vote-getter, and a battle-tested campaigner who inspires confidence in all corners of the party,” Michael Bronstein, a state-based Democratic political consultant, told me. Bronstein added that Shapiro is “not exactly the type of person anyone should want to run against.”</p>
<p>Still, Shapiro is noticeably vulnerable. After all, the state’s chief law enforcement officer – along with ranking Democrats such as Philadelphia district attorney Larry Krasner – has drawn <a href="https://www.thetrace.org/2021/05/philadelphia-da-election-larry-krasner-opponent-gun-violence/">ire</a> from Pennsylvanians amid surging crime that has overwhelmed <a href="https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2021/11/29/homicides-killings-violent-crimes-increase-trend-Allegheny-county-pittsburgh/stories/202111270019">cities</a>, especially Philadelphia, which is experiencing its <a href="https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/sense-of-lawlessness-with-500-killings-2021-is-deadliest-in-philly-history/3057586/#:~:text=With%20more%20than%20a%20month,year%20in%20Philly's%20recorded%20history.">deadliest year</a> on record. Shapiro, moreover, has <a href="https://broadandliberty.com/2021/07/21/gina-diorio-the-many-unanswered-questions-surrounding-ag-josh-shapiro/">drawn criticism</a> for <a href="https://www.thetimes-tribune.com/news/prosecution-error-decimates-major-drug-case/article_be5ad5b9-2bcf-5b52-9db8-b36cd2cca5a6.html">botching</a> the prosecution of a significant drug case in northeastern Pennsylvania. And following the pandemic’s state-enforced lockdowns and restrictions, Philadelphia is on pace for a <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/health/opioid-addiction/philadelphia-overdose-deaths-2021-record-20211130.html">record year</a> in fatal drug overdoses. The opioid epidemic has intensified <a href="https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/western-pa-among-nationwide-areas-seeing-dangerous-rise-in-opioid-epidemic/">throughout the state</a>, including the <a href="https://www.post-gazette.com/news/overdosed/2021/06/13/Fentanyl-overdose-deaths-Western-Pennsylvania-pittsburgh-Cody-Mahon/stories/202106130039">Pittsburgh region</a>.</p>
<p>If Republicans aim to strategically oppose Shapiro and the <a href="https://thefederalist.com/2021/09/22/philadelphias-campaign-to-prop-up-opioid-use-under-the-guise-of-safety-is-a-terrible-idea/">failed</a> progressive policies that have <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/crime/philadelphia-homicides-record-400-gun-violence-20210926.html">let</a> crime and drug use soar, one can only wonder if it’s time to narrow the party’s gubernatorial primary field. The first GOP debate is set to take place on Jan. 5 at <a href="https://www.pennlive.com/politics/2021/12/first-debate-announced-for-republicans-running-for-governor-in-pa.html">Dickinson College in Carlisle</a>. Voters may benefit from watching fewer candidates to get a sense of the most effective and winning message for a state navigating an uncertain future. Insiders have told me that several current candidates have no chance next November.</p>
<p>Polling groups have previously <a href="https://eu.timesonline.com/story/news/2021/03/02/pennsylvania-govs-race-toss-up-early-ratings-2022/6890231002/">released</a> data suggesting that Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race is a toss-up. The question is whether it will stay tight as Republicans duke it out among themselves. Will noncompetitive candidates distract from the party’s messaging?</p>
<p>A Pennsylvania spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee did not respond to a request for comment on the matter.</p>
<p>According to Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research, the crowded GOP field situation is “really a glass-half-full or half-empty kind of thing.” (Lee disclosed in a statement that he has been contracted by GOP hopeful Barletta to do polling).</p>
<p>“On the negative side, this kind of a contested primary means spending limited resources that I agree will ultimately need to be saved for an expensive general election versus Shapiro, who will be well-stocked, well-funded, and ready for battle,” Lee told me. “Pennsylvania has six media markets – and we are an expensive state to compete in from a paid media perspective. So, a divided and bloody GOP primary definitely benefits the Democratic nominee.”</p>
<p>Lee, however, believes the multitude of candidates gives voters a wide range of options and the GOP an opportunity to determine who has the best chance to win.</p>
<p>The pollster’s view was echoed by Mark Harris, a founding partner at ColdSpark Media, a political consulting group headquartered in Pittsburgh.</p>
<p>Harris, who is being retained by Corman’s campaign, believes that Shapiro’s vulnerability on issues like crime and taxes gives Republicans leeway. He does not see the crowded field as a problem early on, but rather as a way for voters to determine which candidate is most appealing and most likely to stand up to progressivism.</p>
<p>“I think when all is said and done, Democrats will look back and wish they hadn’t given Shapiro – a historically weak candidate – a free pass,” said Harris. “The primary competition is one where we’re going to have a strong candidate come out the other end, who is going to be forced to raise money and run a real race.”</p>
<p>“Pennsylvania is a purple state, anything can happen.”</p>
<p>The veteran consultant added, “I think there are so many people running because everyone sees it’s a good Republican year, right?”</p>
<p>The filing deadline for nomination petitions is <a href="https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/CandidatesCommittees/RunningforOffice/Documents/2021/2021%20important%20dates.pdf">March 9</a>.</p>
<p><i>The views expressed in this piece are the author&#8217;s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.</i></p>
<p><i>Gabe Kaminsky is a senior contributor for The Federalist. His work has appeared in RealClearPolitics, the New York Post, Fox News, and other outlets. Follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/Gabe__Kaminsky">Twitter</a>.</i></p>

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GOP’s Crowded PA Gubernatorial Field: A Help Or Hindrance?

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2022 Election

Pennsylvania

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GOP’s Crowded PA Gubernatorial Field: A Help Or Hindrance?