With Donald Trump’s victory in the Nevada caucuses, and even as betting markets make him the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination outright, the campaigns of Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) enter deeper into Delusionland.
The Cruz campaign seems to be working under the delusion that if they beat Rubio in the SEC primaries, Rubio will drop out. That’s insane. Rubio isn’t going anywhere. He’s picking up establishment endorsements at a rapid clip, Jeb! Bush’s entire fundraising infrastructure has shifted over to him, and he believes that if he can carry through to the late primaries, he’ll outlast everyone else and then beat Trump one-on-one in enough states to either win outright or take his candidacy to a brokered convention. Cruz is also relying on a big win in Texas, but the numbers there suggest he has no shot of winning the 50 percent necessary in order to turn Texas into a winner-take-all state; the most optimistic poll shows him at 37 percent to Trump’s 29 percent, and the latest poll from Emerson shows Cruz at 29, Trump at 28, and Rubio at 25.
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