News and Commentary

First Poll Since FBI’s Clinton News Bomb Shows Potentially Significant Damage

For anyone wondering how, and to what degree, the FBI’s actions regarding Huma Abedin’s laptop would impact Hillary Clinton in the race to the White House, we have an answer.

According to an ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, conducted October 25-28, with additional interviews taking place on the 29th, a stunning 34% of likely voters are “less likely” to vote for Hillary Clinton because of the FBI’s new investigation. 63% said it makes “no difference.”

The same poll has Hillary Clinton just one point ahead of Donald Trump in a four-way race (46% to 45%), and three points ahead in a two-way race (49% to 46%). From October 22 – October 28, the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll narrowed significantly:

October 22
Clinton: 50%, Trump: 38%

October 23
Clinton: 50%, Trump: 38%

October 24
Clinton: 49%, Trump: 40%

October 25
Clinton: 48%, Trump: 42%

October 26
Clinton: 48%, Trump: 44%

October 27
Clinton: 47%, Trump: 45%

October 28
Clinton: 46%, Trump: 45%

The numbers for Libertarian Party candidate, Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, have remained relatively steady over the same time period, meaning Trump’s gains are likely coming at the expense of Clinton.

In a two-way race, the numbers have also narrowed, though to a lesser extent. From October 22 – October 28, Clinton dropped from 53% to 49%, and Trump leapt from 42% to 46%.

Over the last six months, general election polling has resembled a sine wave, with Clinton ahead of Trump at nearly every point in the race, aside from a few brief dips. If the FBI’s announcement continues to make the impact the ABC News/Washington Post poll suggests it’s making, this might be a closer race than anyone imagined.

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