The biggest question facing election analysts in Tuesday’s contests in New Jersey and Virginia is whether or not the “ticked-off, younger, diverse working class voters” for President Donald Trump in 2024 show up for Republicans again, according to polling expert Brent Buchanan.
Buchanan, president of the polling group Cygnal, told Morning Wire in an interview ahead of Tuesday’s elections that Republicans face an uphill battle to win the governors’ seats in New Jersey and Virginia, but the fight is winnable.
In New Jersey, Republican Jack Ciattarelli is running against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill. While Sherrill has led in the polls, the latest data shows the race is neck-and-neck. An Atlas Intel poll released on Saturday shows Sherrill up over Ciattarelli by just one point, 50 to 49.
The New Jersey race will come down to the unknown: whether or not Trump’s coalition of voters will return to the polls to vote Republican again. While Trump lost the state by six points in 2024, the margin was a massive improvement from the 16-point loss he suffered in 2020.
“The more Hispanic areas, the non-white, working-class areas of the state that made New Jersey a purple state during the 2024 presidential election,” need to show up again for Republicans, said Buchanan.
“The challenge that we’re seeing in polling right now in both New Jersey and Virginia is that that coalition of the ticked-off, younger, diverse, working class voters … they’re still pretty ticked off, and so does that mean that they show up and reluctantly vote Republican? Or do they stay home out of protest?” the pollster said.
The Virginia gubernatorial race, as reflected in polling, is a much more challenging situation for the Republican, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger led Sears by between seven and 15 points in a slate of polls released on Monday. Across each poll, Spanberger’s level of support never dipped below 50%, according to RealClear Polling.
For Sears to win, “a lot of pieces have to fall into place,” Buchanan said.
“The southwest, which is the more rural Republican parts, have to come out in droves” beyond what they did for Trump in 2024, he said. Sears also needs to keep pace in Virginia’s Hampton Roads region in the state’s east along the shore.
“The Election Day turnout in the suburbs and urban areas of the state have to be pretty darn low,” Buchanan said.
The Virginia races have been affected by the scandals of the Democratic nominee for state attorney general, Jay Jones. Jones’ support by polling has taken a meaningful hit since he was revealed to have sent text messages in 2022 wishing harm against then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert, a Republican, and his children, saying that, “Only when people feel pain personally do they move on policy.”
Spanberger has largely brushed off the scandals plaguing the Democratic attorney general nominee, refusing to pull her endorsement for the embattled Jones. The scandal appeared to drag down the gubernatorial nominee in polling, as well. Spanberger has contained the damage with an overwhelming money advantage over Sears and with the help of a media climate that has largely stopped covering Jones’ texts, according to Buchanan.
“There’s more than a two-to-one spending advantage, Spanberger over Sears. And at some point, it’s just hard to come back from that amount of political spending differential,” the pollster said.
According to Buchanan, Republican candidates in both states will continue to have a shot at winning as long as Republicans show up to vote, no matter what polls suggest.
“Republicans can win when we actually go out and vote,” said Buchanan. “I think that’s one of the things that our voters do wrong. They see a poll that shows, well, maybe we don’t have a chance and so they don’t go vote. Democrats don’t act like that. They show up regardless. And if we adopt that attitude, we can win some of these really tough elections, too.”
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