Analysis

Early Polls Hint At 2024 Republican Frontrunners

   DailyWire.com
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 12: Donald Trump Jr., the son of U.S. President Donald Trump, leaves following a second closed-door interview with members of the Senate Intelligence Committee in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill June 12, 2019 in Washington, DC. Trump Jr. negotiated limitations with the committee after it issued a subpoena for his testimony, which will include questions about a June 2016 meeting at Trump Tower with a Russian lawyer promising incriminating information about Hillary Clinton. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

As we move on from the 2020 election, eyes are now moving forward to 2024, with early polls providing some insight into Republican voter preference for the next presidential cycle.

Morning Consult and Politico surveyed 595 Republicans between January 8 and 11 — a few days after the US Capitol building riot and two weeks before President Biden’s inauguration. 

In comparison to data from late November, President Donald Trump saw a 12% decrease in support, though he remains far ahead of potential rivals. Other candidates saw modest increases in voter preference over the same period.

Here are the leading Republican candidates for the presidential nomination in 2024.

Donald Trump

Morning Consult and Politico show former President Donald Trump boasting 42% of voters’ support a figure that dwarfs support for other candidates, including his vice president and his firstborn son.

On January 25, Trump established the “Office of the Former President” in Florida to “carry on the agenda of the Trump Administration through advocacy, organizing, and public activism,” according to a statement.

This move signals that the 45th President is looking to continue influencing national politics in the foreseeable future, even if he declines to seek a second term in the White House.

Mike Pence

Following President Trump is former Vice President and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, who is supported by 16% of Republicans a 4% increase since late November.

In the drama surrounding the Capitol riot, Pence was reportedly furious with President Trump. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) told reporters on January 7 that he has “known Mike Pence forever,” yet had “never seen Pence as angry as he was today.”

Pence attended President Biden’s inauguration instead of President Trump’s departure from Washington. However, Pence also refused to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove his boss from the Oval Office.

It is unclear if a rift between the former president and vice president will endure into the 2024 election cycle.

Donald Trump Jr.

Maintaining 6% of Republican support is Donald Trump Jr. the eldest son of former President Trump.

Trump Jr. was active in his father’s campaign and assembled a massive online following, which includes 6.6 million Twitter followers. In the past two years, he published two books about modern American politics. His book Triggered was an instant New York Times bestseller.

Trump Jr.’s evident popularity among members of his father’s base may signal a promising political future.

Ted Cruz

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is currently tied with Trump Jr. as a preferred presidential candidate for 6% of Republicans.

Sen. Cruz who was one of the last Republicans to drop out of the 2016 nomination contest fiercely criticized then-candidate Donald Trump, at one point calling him a “sniveling coward.” During his speech at the 2016 Republican National Convention, Sen. Cruz received boos after he did not explicitly endorse Trump as the party’s nominee. However, this relationship was repaired in the years after the 2016, with Sen. Cruz rising as a staunch Trump ally.

Some speculated that Sen. Cruz was establishing himself as a presidential frontrunner in 2020 in case Trump lost the 2016 election. This rivalry may resurface between Sen. Cruz and any allies of President Trump who run for the Republican nomination in 2024.

Mitt Romney

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), who lost to former President Barack Obama in the 2012 election, also holds 6% of Republican support.

To this day, Sen. Romney is an outspoken rival of former President Trump. Most recently, he condemned Trump for refusing to concede the 2020 election.

“He could be going out championing this extraordinary success, and instead, he’s leaving Washington with a whole series of conspiracy theories and things that are so nutty and loopy that people are shaking their head wondering what in the world has gotten into this man?” Sen. Romney told CNN host Jake Tapper. “I think that’s unfortunate because he has more accomplishments than this last chapter suggests he’s gonna be known for.”

Nikki Haley

Coming in slightly behind Romney, Cruz, and Trump Jr. is former Ambassador to the United Nations and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who holds 5% of Republicans’ favor.

In early January, Haley formed a PAC called Stand for America, which will seek to elect “a conservative force to the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate to serve as a bulwark against the liberal agendas of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi.” Campaigning alongside conservative politicians would increase Haley’s exposure to the Republican base before the 2024 election.

Bradley Crate — a strategist who worked on the Romney and Trump campaigns — was tapped to assist with leading Stand for America.

Others

As with the most recent Republican and Democratic primary fields, several candidates may enter the contest for the 2024 presidential nomination.

Morning Consult found that several prominent Republicans including Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD), former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA), Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AK), Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD), and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) received 3% or less of Republican support.

The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.

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