Sunday’s election was undoubtedly a win for the anti-elite populist, both from the left and the right. However, that doesn’t mean that second-place Marine Le Pen of the welfare-state friendly, hyper-nationalist National Front has a good shot at winning the presidency in the second-round of voting. She’s still a longshot.
In the first round runoff election, Le Pen obtained 21.3% of the vote, a couple points shy of Macron’s 24%. The French electoral system requires the winning candidate to secure the majority (as opposed to plurality) of the vote, so the two top vote-getters must face off again in a second-round runoff set to take place on May 7. At that point, either Le Pen or Macron will walk away with at least 50% of the vote and a key to the president’s office.
In a crowded field of candidates, Le Pen may have been able to carry out an impressive performance, but a head-to-head runoff is a different beast altogether.
Already, Francois Fillon, the mainstream conservative candidate in the race, has conceded defeat, throwing his support behind Macron, despite significant policy differences with the former socialist economic minister.
There’s “no other option but to vote against the far right,” said Fillon during a concession speech.
France’s Fillon concedes defeat, endorses Macron, says there is “no other option but to vote against the far right” pic.twitter.com/vvXBTwKGMs
— AFP news agency (@AFP) April 23, 2017
The French political establishment is ardently opposed to a far-right populist candidate like Le Pen, imposing radical changes on the country. As a result, leaders from both the mainstream left and right will rally against Le Pen, consolidating their support behind centrist Macron.
It’s not surprising then that in a head-to-head election, Macron is predicted to win by double-digits.
First Ipsos poll on the second round:
62% Macron
38% Le Pen— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) April 23, 2017
Hardcore National Front supporters and “anti-elite” populists are rejecting these projections, however, citing the egregious inaccuracy of polling data across Western countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom. While it’s true that pollsters got both Donald Trump’s unexpected presidential victory and Brexit wrong, that doesn’t mean that history will repeat itself in France.
It goes without saying that France is a different country. For months now, pollsters, demographers, and pundits have tracked Le Pen’s political insurgency with due diligence, registering the country’s widespread discontent with the ruling parties. It’s no secret that socialist French President Francois Hollande is widely unpopular. He knows that and his party knows that. That’s why he chose not to run for another term.
Assessed together, these variables have allowed French pollsters to accurately predict the results of Sunday’s first round runoff. No, they didn’t say that Le Pen would lose in a landslide. They predicted an impressive performance, one that was underscored by the thousands of Frenchmen the National Front attracts at its rallies.
French polls were spot-on.
Poll Average / Actual Result:
Macron: 24 / 24
Le Pen: 22 / 21
Fillon: 20 / 20
Melenchon: 19 / 20
Hamon: 8 / 6— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) April 24, 2017
And yet, given France’s runoff voting system, Le Pen is highly unlikely to pull a come-from-behind win out of her hat. Her chances aren’t good any way you slice it. But that doesn’t mean she doesn’t have her eyes on the next presidential election in 2022. If Macron fails to stabilize the economy, build a strong coalition and fortify France’s national security infrastructure against Islamic terrorist attacks, then Le Pen’s popularity will only surge, giving her a realistic shot and unseating him in five years (French presidential elections used to be held every seven years. Now, they’re held every five years).
Notably, Le Pen’s performance so far has taken the far-right National Front mainstream, a political feat inconceivable last election cycle. Even if she loses (and all indications suggest that she likely will lose in a landslide), Le Pen and her opposition movement (anti-Islamist, anti-immigrant, anti-EU, anti-globalization, anti-trade) won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. The National Front has shown that it could compete at the highest level of French electoral politics, thanks in large part to the refugee and terrorism crises plaguing the country.