Democratic lawmakers and political strategists are eyeing the three Midwestern states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — often referred to as the “blue wall” — to deliver a 2024 re-election victory for President Joe Biden.
Senate Democratic Policy and Communications Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) told The Hill that the blue wall “was critical” in both 2020, when Biden defeated former President Donald Trump, and in 2016 when Trump won over Democrat Hillary Clinton. Stabenow said she believes the president will fare well in her home state of Michigan, along with the other blue wall states, because the Biden administration is “bringing jobs back.”
“Basically, the Biden administration is doing everything that others — including Donald Trump — have talked about but were never really serious about doing,” Stabenow added. “President Biden is aiming right at the middle class: particularly, bringing jobs home. Rebuild America. You tackle costs, you take on the drug companies. Made in America.”
Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) echoed Stabenow’s confidence, predicting that Biden would win in all three blue wall states by focusing on the economy, according to The Hill.
“It’s too early to tell for sure, but I think the economy continues to grow, and we’re seeing the MAGA side of the Republican Party clearly making politics, trying to block making things better at the border, solving some of those problems, for political advantage,” said Hickenlooper.
In each of the past four presidential elections, the winner has taken all three blue wall states with Trump, in 2016, being the only Republican to win all three since Ronald Reagan did it in 1984. Currently, Trump leads Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to the RealClearPolitcs average of polling, and Biden leads by less than one point in Pennsylvania.
Trump leads in each of the other four battleground states, according to the RCP average, but Biden has recently cut into the Republcan’s polling advantage. According to the polling average as of Monday afternoon, Trump takes six of the seven toss-up states, giving him 293 electoral votes to Biden’s 245.
The Democrats who spoke to The Hill conceded that Biden pulling off wins in Arizona and Georgia would be tough this year, but they believe there’s an open path for the president to win re-election without those two states. If Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with the other states he’s expected to take, that would give him exactly 270 electoral votes to Trump’s 268.
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“Generally, the most reasonable way to predict future voting behavior is to look at past voting behavior. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin are all states that, by and large, we’ve done pretty well in over the years — 2016 being the outlier there,” said Democratic strategist Steve Schale, a senior adviser on Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign.
Both Biden and Trump have visited Michigan and Wisconsin in recent days, with Trump focusing heavily on the border crisis and Biden narrowing in on his economic agenda, pro-abortion policies, and student debt relief efforts. Abortion will likely remain the top issue for the Biden campaign, especially in Michigan, where voters chose to add the right to have an abortion to the State Constitution.
Trump released a statement on abortion policy on Monday morning, saying he supports states deciding abortion laws and is against federal abortion limitations.
“My view is now that we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land. In this case, the law of the state,” Trump said.