CNN’s top data analyst warned on Monday that polls predicting major wins for Democrats might not be telling the whole story, even with less than 24 hours until polls open on Election Day.
Harry Enten laid out the numbers, noting that the most recent polling suggested Democrats could come out of the midterm elections with 54 seats in the Senate — but then he explained why those polls might not be a fair indicator of what was to come, and it all hinged on polling trends in the era of President Donald Trump.
In recent elections — specifically between 2018 and 2024 — Enten explained, “The GOP has beaten the final Senate polling average in close races in states Trump won in the prior election by — look at this — by four-point-one points, by four-point-one points on average.”
Enten emphasized that he was discussing polling averages rather than individual polls. Applying that historical error to the current Senate map, he said, would give Republicans enough seats to hold their majority.
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“So let’s just assume that we do get these polling errors and the GOP is in fact, underestimated. What might that do?” he asked. “Well it might do something like this. Hello! Okay, you go from all of a sudden Democrats fall significantly from 54 seats down to 49. Why? Because Alaska goes red, Texas goes red, Kansas goes red, Ohio goes red — and so I think that people should keep in mind that polls are just tools. There are definitely scenarios that are out there in which Republicans could very well hold the United States Senate.”
Enten also warned that because polling had been so inaccurate in recent years, it was also possible that Democrats could be underestimated.
NBC News ran some interesting numbers that could explain, at least in part, why Republicans might be underestimated in polls that ask specifically about the candidates running.
When voters were asked which party they trusted more on specific issues, NBC’s poll found that although Democrats had gained ground since 2024, they may not have gained enough on the issues voters care about.
On immigration, for example, voters favored the GOP by 11 points. On corruption, they preferred Republicans by five points — and on the overall economy, Republicans led by two points. Democrats, by contrast, led by five points on the Iran war and by one point on inflation. The parties were dead even on upholding democracy.
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