It’s not often the incumbent in the White House isn’t the frontrunner for re-election, but it’s even rarer that he’s in third place.
“Biden’s crushed approval ratings and worsening betting odds are causing Democrats to wonder if he is the right figure to take on Trump in 2024,” said Joe Short of Gambling.com. “According to the Wall Street Journal, Democrats expect him to go for a second term at the age of 82, but they’re not sure he should.”
“To make matters even worse for Biden, he is now third favourite to win the 2024 US Presidential election, behind both Trump (3/1) and Florida’s Republican governor Ron DeSantis (4/1),” he said.
Short said that Biden initially appeared willing to cede power to his Vice President Kamala Harris after just one term, but she’s not faring to well to bookies, either. She has “floated way out to 12/1 with bet365 to be the next U.S. president. Evidently punters and U.K. bookmakers are looking no further than Biden when it comes to Democratic names in 2024.”
In fact, Biden’s odds of even serving out his full first term aren’t all that great.
Biden’s odds of serving until Jan. 20, 2025, are “at their worst since November 2021, as betting sites maintain a level of uncertainty over the veteran’s longevity in the White House.”
“Biden’s first 18 months as president have been dogged by political issues at home and abroad. America has come out of the COVID-19 pandemic more divided than ever, and a cost of living crisis is beginning to pinch,” Short said. “Betting apps have dropped their odds on the president being ousted before his first four years have elapsed.”
According to political betting sites, Biden is “now 7/4 to lose his job before 2024. That suggests a 36% probability – the highest his chances of being ousted as president have been since last autumn,” the oddsmaker said.
While pollsters in the U.S. are all hat and no cattle, when you’re trying to figure out who will win, look to the British bookies, who put their money where their mouths are.
“Right now Trump is the +300 favourite to win the next US election, with Biden out at +550,” Short said in an email in April. (For odds, +300 signifies the amount a better could win when wagering $100. So, if the bet’s successful, a player would receive a total payout of $400 ($300 net profit + $100 initial stake) on +300 odds.
Joseph Curl has covered politics for 35 years, including 12 years as White House correspondent for a national newspaper. He was also the a.m. editor of the Drudge Report for four years. Send tips to [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @josephcurl.