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Biden Tumbles To Third In Latest New Hampshire Poll

By  Frank Camp
Former US Vice President Joe Biden speaks during the First State Democratic Dinner in Dover, Delaware, on March 16, 2019.
SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images

On Tuesday, a new poll from CNN/University of New Hampshire was released showing former Vice President Joe Biden falling to third place in the Granite State.

“If the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary were held today, 21% of likely primary voters say they would vote for [Sen. Bernie] Sanders, 18% would vote for [Sen. Elizabeth] Warren, 15% would vote for Biden, and 10% would vote for [Mayor Pete] Buttigieg,” according to the poll.

This is a stark contrast from the previous CNN/UNH poll released on July 16, which had Biden in the lead with 24% of the vote.

While Biden’s favorability in New Hampshire has seen a negative shift since July, it has been relatively minor. Meanwhile, the former vice president’s chief rivals, Sanders and Warren, have risen to first and second place despite also experiencing negative shifts in favorability.

In July, 57% of “likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters” had a “favorable” opinion of Biden, while 25% had an “unfavorable” opinion. In this most recent poll, 55% of Democratic primary voters in the state have a “favorable” view of Biden compared to 30% who have an “unfavorable” view.

Let’s look at the numbers for Sanders and Warren. In July, Sanders and Warren had identical numbers — 67% “favorable” compared to 18% “unfavorable.”

According to Tuesday’s poll, Sanders has shifted to 66% “favorable” versus 23% “unfavorable.” Warren has shifted as well, with 63% “favorable” and 25% “unfavorable.”

Despite these relatively minor changes in favorability, the former vice president’s position in the state race has plummeted, while Sanders has leapt to first place with 23% of the vote. Warren has actually dropped by a single percentage point (19% to 18%), but Biden’s 9% fall is much more significant.

According to the poll, a staggering 57% of Democratic primary voters are “still trying to decide” on a candidate. That number was 64% in July. 23% have “definitely decided.” In July, that number was 16%.

For a candidate once considered the “frontrunner,” Biden appears to be losing momentum or treading water in other early primary/caucus states.

In Iowa, Biden sits in third place with 15.7%, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average. Warren and Buttigieg place first and second, with 22.3% and 17%, respectively.

In Nevada, Biden remains in the lead with 22.5%, according to the RCP average. However, it should be noted that the most recent polling data for the state is from late-September. In the most recent poll from CNN, Biden is tied with Sanders at 22%, with Warren close behind at 18%.

In South Carolina, Biden still commands a substantial lead, with 35% of the vote, per the RealClearPolitics average. The four most recent polls from the state appear to show the former vice president struggling to keep his lead (34%, 43%, 33%, 30%), while other candidates remain steady or move slightly upward.

As of publication, the RealClearPolitics national polling average has Biden in the lead with 27.6%, Warren in second with 20.4%, Sanders in third with 17%, and Buttigieg in fourth with 7.1% of the vote.

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