On Friday, SurveyUSA released a new national Democratic primary poll, which was conducted between January 14 – 16 on 5,000 adults, 4,069 of whom “are registered voters,” with “1,086 likely to vote in a Democratic Primary.”
The survey asked: “Where you live, if there were a Democratic primary today, which Democrat would you vote for to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for President of the United States?”
In first place is former Vice President Joe Biden with 32%. In a distant second place is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) with 21%, and in third place is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with 14%.
In fourth and fifth place are Mayor Pete Buttigieg and billionaire Michael Bloomberg, each with 9% support.
When broken down by age, Biden still leads in three of four groups. 27% of the 35-49 age group support Biden compared to 25% for Sanders, and 16% for Warren. 45% of the 50-64 age group support Biden compared to just 12% for Sanders and 13% for Warren. Biden’s support dips a bit to 37% among the 65+ group, but Sanders tanks with the elderly voters with just 8%. Warren nabs 13%.
However, among the 18-34 age group, Sanders explodes with 38% support compared to Biden’s 20% and Warren’s 16%.
Biden also dominates among African American voters, where he has 50% support compared to second-place Sanders’ 18%, and Warren’s 9%. Among Hispanic voters, Biden and Sanders are virtually tied with 31% and 30%, respectively. Warren sits in a distant third with 10% Hispanic support.
Another area where Biden triumphs over the rest of the field is among religious individuals who attend regular services.
46% of those who attend religious services “regularly” support Biden compared to 14% who support Sanders and 13% who support Warren.
Among those who “almost never” attend religious services, the field is much more open. 26% of those who “almost never” attend religious services support Biden compared to 22% who support Sanders, and 17% who support Warren.
“Strongly pro-life” respondents also side with Biden in a major way, giving him 44% support over second-place Sanders’ 16% and Warren’s 8%. The “strongly pro-choice” respondents are more spread out, with 27% supporting Biden, 24% supporting Sanders, and 17% supporting Warren.
According to the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, Biden remains in the lead with 28.4% to Sanders’ 20.4%, and Warren’s 14.8%.
In Iowa, Biden and Sanders are in a near tie with 20.7% and 20.3%, respectively. In New Hampshire, which votes second, Sanders actually leads Biden 22.5% to 21%. Warren sits in third place in the state with 16.3% support, with Buttigieg nipping at her heels with 14.5% support.
Biden’s largest advantage is still in South Carolina, where he leads Sanders by 17% (32% to 15%).
What this new SurveyUSA poll appears to indicate is that while Sen. Bernie Sanders is on the rise nationally, and Biden remains in a healthy first position, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who was once considered a potential threat to the former vice president, continues on her steep tumble.
With Iowa just 15 days away, the candidates are losing time to change the numbers before the caucus state sets the tone of what’s to come afterward.