When Californians voted to pass Proposition 50 this week, it did more than give Democrats additional House seats. It also launched a new phase of the redistricting wars.
The ballot measure itself marked an escalation in the fight. The California Democratic Party put forth the measure as “a direct response to a Republican power grab orchestrated by President Trump and state leaders in Texas, who redrew congressional district lines to gain five more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.”
California Governor Gavin Newsom celebrated Proposition 50’s passage in explicitly partisan terms Tuesday night, boasting that “in every critical category, Donald Trump is underwater.”
Things don’t show any signs of cooling off. On Wednesday, the California Republican Party sued in federal court to block Proposition 50.
“Dear Gavin Newsom, I hate to rain on your parade but your celebration over the passage of Prop 50 will need to wait a few days,” Mark Meuser, an attorney with Dhillon Law Group, posted to X. “You have been sued. Your unconstitutional racial gerrymandering is now heading to a federal three-judge panel and maybe to the SCOTUS to determining if your use of race in drawing congressional districts should be enjoined.”
“We are asking the court to require the old maps to be in effect while we litigation your unconstitutional actions,” he continued.
In response, Newsom’s office said it had not “reviewed the lawsuit” and offered best wishes to the opposition: “good luck, losers.”
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But California isn’t the only front in the redistricting war. Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe signed off on a map in September adding one seat favoring Republicans, and North Carolina Republicans also made a move for another seat to likely favor their party last month.
However, The Guardian reported that across the 16 states where mid-decade redistricting could happen in at least some capacity, it could ultimately help Republicans grow their numbers in the House of Representatives.
Notably, Ohio was required to do mid-decade redistricting anyway, which also ended up giving Republicans an advantage.
Still, a potential legal earthquake could make everything even more complicated. NPR recently reported that a Supreme Court case, Louisiana v. Callais, could scrap a section of the Voting Rights Act over how race is considered in the drawing of congressional maps, which could lead to roughly 19 seats being shifted to favor Republicans.
“Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act has been a critical tool in safeguarding the promise that people of color can participate in our democracy on equal terms,” Sophia Lin Lakin, director of the ACLU’s Voting Rights Project, said in an Oct. 15 statement. “It has been our shield against discriminatory maps and our answer to laws designed to suppress the vote.”
Hans von Spakovsky, a senior legal fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told The Daily Wire that Republicans could end up getting the last laugh.
“I think the Republicans will, and the reason for that is that, you know, with a few exceptions, Democratic-controlled states have already gerrymandered their states pretty much to the maximum you can,” he said.
“So, I actually think even if California is successful, I think with what the other states are doing, I still think Republicans may come out slightly ahead,” the legal expert continued.
“Look, what’s at stake in the Louisiana case is actually very simple: it’s the conflict between the Voting Rights Act and the 14th Amendment,” he said regarding the Supreme Court battle.
Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA) told The Daily Wire that the mid-decade or “rolling redistricting” runs the risk of being “incredibly destabilizing for the folks who represent these areas and for their constituents.”
“I am continuing to advocate for my legislation to stop this whole redistricting domino effect. I think it’s a really bad thing for the country. I think it is degrading democracy in every state where it happens. I think gerrymandering is wrong, and we need to just put an end to this,” Kiley explained regarding his legislative pitch to end mid-decade redistricting.
“I’m continuing to call for a vote on that bill. I think if it did receive a vote it would pass, and I’m also working on legislation to just end gerrymandering altogether by the time of the next redistricting after the 2030 census,” the Republican said.
Kiley added that “it’s really hard to say at this point” whether or not one party will benefit more from the redistricting battle, saying that “the whole thing might come out to be a wash anyway.”
Republicans have a 219-213 majority in the House. Three seats are currently empty.
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