A special election is being held in Georgia’s sixth congressional district to replace Tom Price, who is now the Health and Human Services Secretary in the Trump administration. The race is expected to be very competitive. What are the details of the race? Who is polling the best? What implications could the race have on the political scene?
Here are seven things you need to know about this upcoming special election in Georgia’s sixth congressional district.
1. April 18 is the primary; the runoff election is June 20. The candidates with the two highest number of votes, regardless of party, would face off in the June 20 runoff election; however, if a candidate reaches 50 percent in the April 18 primary, then that candidate would win the seat outright.
2. Political scientist Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball website changed the district election from “Likely Republican” to “Toss-up.” It might seem strange that a congressional district previously held by a Republican that served in Congress for 13 years would suddenly become a toss-up, but a number of factors have combined to give the Democrats a decent chance at winning this election.
3. Trump struggled in this district in both the general election and the primary. Trump only won the district by 1.5 percentage points in November, whereas Mitt Romney won the district by 23 points in 2012. Trump also lost the district to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in the primary even though Trump won the state as a whole. This is important because, according to The New York Times, “the most recent presidential election has had nearly three times the predictive weight of the preceding one.”
4. The Democrats have united behind a well-funded candidate. Jon Ossoff, a 30 year-old filmmaker, has already raised $3 million. He has been endorsed by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Reps. Hank Johnson and John Lewis (D-GA), the far-left Daily Kos blog and various members of Hollywood.
5. The Republicans, on the other hand, are fractured. There are 11 Republican candidates running for the seat; the Republicans have yet to unite behind any of them. The three Republican candidates best positioned to win are former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel (pictured above), businessman Bob Gray and state senator Judson Hill.
6. The latest polling indicates that the runoff election would be between Ossoff and Handel. A poll released on March 24 shows Ossoff with a whopping 39.8 percent followed by Handel at 19.9 percent. Gray and Hill were at 10.4 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively. The poll indicates that a Ossoff vs. Handel general election would be close, In a head-to-head matchup, Ossoff leads her narrowly, 42.4 percent to 41 percent, although 16.6 percent said they were undecided.
But there’s also the possibility that the runoff won’t be necessary, as The New York Times noted that “it wouldn’t be shocking if Mr. Ossoff got the 50 percent necessary to avoid a runoff in June.”
Additionally, Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, noted on Twitter:
.@Nate_Cohn 4. A main outside R group (CLF) was already engaged, and now it appears the NRCC is getting in too. At very least, Rs are concerned
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) March 30, 2017
.@Nate_Cohn 5. So there’s sufficient uncertainty heading into first round that we’re calling it a Toss-up, Will reevaluate after, assuming runoff
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) March 30, 2017
7. If Ossoff wins, the Democrats will view it as a rebuke of President Donald Trump. ABC News noted that Democrats “see this race as a referendum on Trump’s presidency” and they quote Lewis as stating that the district needs to “send a clear message that Donald Trump doesn’t represent our values.” There’s no question that the Democrats would use an Ossoff victory as an indicator that they’re successfully resisting Trump.
There’s also the question of whether the special election is indicative of what’s to come in the 2018 midterms election. Harry Enten wrote at FiveThirtyEight, “This is the type of district where Democrats probably need to do well in 2018 if they have any chance of taking back the majority in the House. And it’ll be an early indicator of what effect the Trump presidency is having on down-ballot races.”
But even if Ossoff wins, The New York Times points out that the “Democrats can’t count on huge fund-raising, a split Republican field and a low turnout for future victories,” although it could mean that they “can cure its enthusiasm gap in the midterms.”
April 18 is shaping up to be an interesting day on the political scene.